What the All Blacks have learned so far in 2024 will be helpful, but so to will it be incomplete, as their next five tests – or certainly four of their next five – will expose them to a whole new level of pressure against opponents who will look to squeeze them and slowly break their spirit through endless physical confrontations.
They are walking into a trap, a serious ambush by having to face England, Ireland, France and Italy – who Kiwis should be wary of underestimating – in successive weekends.
The rugby occasion up North is significantly different to the one produced in the south. And while the All Blacks can take some solace from the way they problem-solved in Wellington to weather an effective early Wallabies onslaught and then put them away with a second half surge, it’s a whole different challenge trying to navigate a path to victory in London, Dublin and Paris.
There’s a whole different level of pressure playing in these venues, where the crowd is on top of the pitch, febrile, engaged and fuelled by the knowledge that any win against the All Blacks will be historic.
The noise gets into visiting players’ heads, scrambles their thinking and England, Ireland and France are masters at knowing how to build pressure.
They know how to suffocate teams like the All Blacks, how to frustrate them and rob them of opportunity, and how to generate a contest that is slower, anaerobic and punctuated with endless stoppages.
Every set-piece will be fiercely contested, kicking strategies will be considered and effective, and the key battleground will be the breakdown where the referee interpretations the All Blacks played under in the Rugby Championship will no doubt be entirely different up north.
Having played back-to-back tests in South Africa the All Blacks may feel they have encountered this formula already, but they haven’t.
What will become apparent to the All Blacks when they arrive in London is that England are waiting for them – frustrated they missed two opportunities in July to secure coveted victories in New Zealand.
But it’s the Irish who are nursing the most fearsome wrath, still fuming that having knocked the All Blacks over twice in 2022, they couldn’t do it in the World Cup quarter-final the following year.
Some of the player exchanges after that game in Paris last year have left a bit of bad blood flowing, and what the All Blacks will discover in their last four tests of the year, is that in every country they visit, no one will hide their desire to see them smashed and then broken come game day.
That sense of being pilgrims in a strange land builds on a European tour and tests the mental resolve of young All Blacks and the leadership qualities of the senior players.
And it will test the coaching staff in new and different ways, and arguably the most intriguing aspect of the upcoming tour will be seeing how much head coach Scott Robertson has learned.
The big questions he and his coaching panel need to ask is whether they believe they can win tests in London, Dublin and Paris with Damian McKenzie at first-five, Rieko Ioane at centre and Sevu Reece on the wing.
The forward pack, with so much depth at prop, Patrick Tuipulotu game fit and the back-row combination of Wallace Sititi, Sam Cane and Ardie Savea finding real cohesion, looks ready to take on what it will encounter.
But the backline is a different story and while there needs to be some caution in overstating Beauden Barrett’s influence in Wellington, it probably wasn’t coincidental that the All Blacks produced their most cohesive and consistent performance with him at No 10.
He kept things decidedly simple, worked the percentages and it seemed that just having him in that role, was enough to instil calm around him.
Ioane’s distribution failures have proven to be a problem that seemingly can’t be fixed.
He’s developed into a supremely good defender, a much-improved reader of the game and a tough, rugged footballer with the speed, size and power to merit inclusion.
But his inability to pass left-to-right – in Sydney he threw a huge, and ill-considered pass that was intercepted and in Wellington he had two duds that killed to go to hand – is the sort of skill-set void that could see the All Blacks fail to capitalise on the micro opportunities.
Games up north will swing on half chances and Robertson must be wondering if he needs to invest now in a centre that can not only pick the right pass to throw but deliver it on demand.
Anton Lienert-Brown showed the value of having someone who can do precisely that, and once Jordie Barrett returns from injury, these two must be appealing as the right midfield combination, with Ioane shifting to the wing in place of Reece.
The little Crusaders wing was exposed defensively against England earlier this year when he was targeted with cross-kicks, and whether it’s a forever back three, picking Caleb Clarke and Ioane on the wings and Will Jordan at fullback feels like it will at least be the right one for this upcoming tour.
Gregor Paul is one of New Zealand’s most respected rugby writers and columnists. He has won multiple awards for journalism and written several books about sport.
