All Blacks tipped but Wallabies won't fold

By WYNNE GRAY in Dunedin

The prevailing judgment is that the All Blacks will win today at Carisbrook, an overwhelming opinion shared by the TAB and former test players, but it seems presumptuous to dismiss the world champion Wallabies.

They may not be playing to the standard of their World Cup win, or last year, but they still beat the Lions and, significantly, welcome Stephen Larkham back to run the backline.

He increases the potential of everyone around him and, with George Gregan, can improvise and pose greater problems than any inside-back pairing in the world.

Larkham's gliding runs can bamboozle the best defences and while the All Blacks have conceded only a few tries in four tests this season, they will be battling to preserve that mark if a more complete side like the Wallabies get their continuity play working.

The only doubt will be Larkham's match fitness. But his return will raise the Wallabies' confidence, especially in their plans to penetrate the All Black defence.

The All Blacks must think attack. They must take it to the Wallabies early, use Jonah Lomu, Doug Howlett and Jeff Wilson out wide to create some uncertainty rather than waiting to feed from their defence and instigate counter-attacks.

If the All Blacks are made to sit and wait, the Wallabies will work into the sort of rhythm where they can control the pace and pattern of the test, where they can also build on the goalkicking prowess of Matthew Burke.

The All Black pack does not have the power of the Lions, whom the Wallabies were eventually able to master.

Since rugby went professional there have been consistent suggestions the Wallabies' scrum is vulnerable.

They are still not worldbeaters in that area, but they do enough. And there has been no great hint of dominance from the All Black pack.

Former All Blacks such as Murray Pierce and Andy Haden have questioned the efficiency of the All Black lineout.

While it coughed up a few throws at Cape Town, it has been no worse than the Wallabies in Pretoria or even the Lions. The trick will be for Norm Maxwell to make strong calls, find some variety and work the lineouts quickly.

The fight for the loose and tackled ball will be critical, as will the interpretation of English referee Steve Lander. If he continues to give an advantage to the tackler, then the side with the ball will need to have numbers to the breakdown to clean away the defence.

If opensider George Smith is isolated out wide, because Owen Finegan and Toutai Kefu are not as mobile, the All Blacks have to get there in clusters.

The forecast is for showers and a southerly breeze. If that eventuates, the tactical kicking of Larkham and Tony Brown will come more into play. Brown should have the advantage there with Larkham a reluctant and sometimes wobbly punter, but there still remains a doubt about Brown's consistency.

He is a most dependable defender but each season he seems to throw in a messy match where his options are muddled.

For the opening quarter, this test may revert to some of the forceback rugby of recent seasons, with both sides looking to force mistakes from the defence, looking for field position and some influence from the referee.

The All Blacks have progressed this season, they have been more solid, but they are a side with players learning their positions such as Wilson, Tana Umaga and Taine Randell. Others such as Justin Marshall and Ron Cribb are in variable form.

The Wallabies have specialists who have been to the cauldron and triumphed more than most in recent seasons, a success rate which will have them believing they can overturn the Dunedin hoodoo.