Ireland has only beaten the All Blacks twice in its history, but both those wins have come in their past four encounters. Photo / Photosport
NZME's stable of rugby experts cast an eye over the state of the All Blacks ahead of the side's final two tests of the northern tour.
Liam Napier: The threat of red and yellow cards. The All Blacks managed to survive Jordie Barrett's red card earlier this year against the Wallabies but unlike the Rugby Championship, the northern tour does not permit replacing sent off players after 20 minutes. Northern Hemisphere officials also tend to have different interpretations, particularly at the breakdown, so despite having English referee Luke Pearce for a second time this year, the All Blacks will need to be squeaky clean.
Chris Rattue: Rugby is deep into an era dominated by the rolling maul as a major scoring weapon. The All Blacks need to keep proving they've got a good maul, in attack and defence.
Kate Wells: Not becoming complacent. These upcoming tests will be the toughest of the tour. It's been a long time on the road and they'll be jaded. Remaining energetic and focused on the task at hand is key, because there's no room for error against teams like Ireland and France. They won't be very forgiving.
Elliott Smith: Can their forward pack dominate a forward-minded opponent? Ireland has a superb offloading game, as evidenced in running around Japan last week, but they pride themselves on their grunt work upfront. It's where the All Blacks have been unable to really stamp their authority in the big tests in recent times and remains the big question mark. Dublin in 2018 they couldn't get any go forward as their pack was monstered. 2019 at the World Cup they beat Ireland with a frenetic game played at pace and didn't allow Ireland to catch their breath. But I feel it's the forwards who need to stand up this week.
Chris Reive: The biggest concern is how they are going to counteract the opposition's defensive line speed. Rush defence has been hugely effective against the All Blacks in recent years, and the success a weakened Italian side had because of it is a little concerning.
Liam Napier: Beauden Barrett got the nod, and on form rightly so. It's been a fluctuating season for the All Blacks No 10 jersey. That's not going to change anytime soon, either. Richie Mo'unga started the year in the box seat but his absence during the Rugby Championship, while at home for the birth of his second child, has opened the door for Barrett to regain the role.
Chris Rattue:Richie Mo'unga. He's the future, but won't be unless he feels like the position is his. If they keep swapping Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett around, it might appear to work, but increases the likelihood of it coming undone under extreme pressure at the World Cup. To be fair though, it is a close call, and the All Blacks are prepared to play large portions of matches with a few playmakers on the field.
Kate Wells: Beauden Barrett. The way he led the All Blacks around the park against Wales was outstanding. His style of play will work well against the Irish - pinpoint accuracy with the boot, remaining composed and using his x-factor when he sees a gap. His consistent form needs to be rewarded.
Elliott Smith: Beauden Barrett. His 100th test against Wales was the best he'd played in a black jersey in a couple of years. Richie Mo'unga probably remains the best 10 in the country - however there's other factors at play given his lack of game time in recent months through his completely warranted decision to stay behind from most of the Australian leg. He's only had the opportunity to beat up on USA and Italy in his starts since, given the way the tour has been laid out. I'd probably favour splitting the Ireland and French starts between the two of them and restart the 10 debate in 2022.
Chris Reive: Beauden Barrett. He has been outstanding in all areas throughout this tour. His decision-making has been great, and he hasn't shied away from flaunting his slippery running game when the space is there. He didn't get a run against Italy so comes in fresh, and with a strong Irish pack awaiting them, Barrett is the right choice this week.
Liam Napier: Leaving out impressive Chiefs hooker Samisoni Taukeiaho would not have been easy. Likewise, there was serious temptation to include Sam Cane on the bench after he got through his first 80-minute shift last week. The starting line up, though, contains no major surprises.
Chris Rattue: Hard to tell how he sees it. Dropping established "stars" like Barrett and Rieko Ioane to the bench is always hard. I don't think the All Blacks have fully adopted the South African "bomb squad" mentality, whereby some high-class substitutes are part of an overall strategy rather than signifying a pecking order.
Kate Wells His backline selection. There's no room for mistakes against a team like the Irish, and they need to be able to perform under the high ball and have a solid kicking game. Foster and the All Blacks coaches have established an impressive starting backline, and I don't think any of the starters against Italy last week proved that they should be in this weekend's run-on side.
Elliott Smith: I can't see them changing the midfield for this test, the tight five pick themselves, so probably who starts at blindside. Does Ethan Blackadder get the nod or Akira Ioane, or maybe Luke Jacobson? It feels like it's a decision they'll have wrestled with for a while. Honourable mentions to halfback and reserve hooker too.
Chris Reive: How and when to use the bench. There are plenty of game breakers in the reserves for the All Blacks, and they have shown an affinity for putting opponents to the sword late in games. However, timing could be crucial against a strong Ireland team - finding the sweet spot between building the platform and launching from it.
Liam Napier: It's the All Blacks, so two-from-two is the natural expectation. Given the mental toll a 15-week tour such as this can take on all involved there is perhaps more leeway than usual, but the All Blacks aren't in the business of making excuses.
Chris Rattue: From this spectator's point of view, a couple of high-class tests and contests. From the All Blacks' point of view, they hate losing. Ever. It's one of the things which sets them apart from the rest.
Kate Wells: Winning the remaining two games and establishing a solid 23. This tour has shown which players are capable of stepping up – with Dalton Papali'i, Finlay Christie, Luke Jacobson, David Havili and Will Jordan all stamping their mark. Those players who haven't performed will be hoping for a big Super Rugby Pacific 2022 to keep them in the World Cup frame.
Elliott Smith: Two wins from their remaining two games. If that's achieved then it's been a pretty successful season and hopefully the last one with Covid-afflicted travel issues that have blighted the last two years. If they can do it with some style in the next couple of weeks that will soothe the Foster-sceptics that still exist.
Chris Reive: Beating both Ireland and France. It's an obvious answer, sure, but coming away with results in both those games and ending the year on a high will be the target. A loss against either - who have historically troubled but struggled to beat the New Zealand side - will put a dampener on what has been a successful tour - you're only as good as your last performance, right?
Liam Napier: It will be a tight run thing. France, probably, on the basis they possess more attacking threats, though recent tinkering with their 10-12 combination and attempting to shoehorn playmakers Romain Ntamack and Matthieu Jalibert in the same starting backline smacks of avoiding a difficult selection decision.
Chris Rattue: Don't know. It's a bit of a venture into the unknown, particularly as the Northern Hemisphere teams are only just getting into the new international season. Ireland have the All Black-beating pedigree, while reborn France are re-emerging as international rugby's wild card.
Kate Wells: I can't put my finger on that, as both will be an arm wrestle. Ireland are in great form and coming off some big wins. Ireland's rush defence could make life very difficult for the All Blacks backline. When it comes to the French, they always turn up to play when taking on New Zealand. The result is also likely to depend on which players are released from their professional clubs.
Elliott Smith: France. A team on the rise and potentially (with the 2022 end of year schedule not yet sighted) the last time we'll see these two ding-dong before the opening game of RWC2023. Add to that, the All Blacks will spend a fortnight in MIQ stewing on the loss if they lose. As Steve Hansen said after the 2012 loss to England, there'll be rocks under the beach towels if they lose. Or should it be rocks under the MIQ mattress?
Chris Reive In a rather fitting end to the tour, the All Blacks end things with their toughest test in France. Les Bleus have been a more active team in 2021 and have been accustomed to the Southern Hemisphere style of play with tests against Australia and Argentina. While their Six Nations campaign didn't go too well, I expect the French to provide the All Blacks with their sternest test of the Northern Tour.
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