The All Black selectors may add fresh blood to the mix as they continue to build for the World Cup
As Graham Henry did his best to both answer and circumnavigate questions about the makeup of his initial All Black squad, he offered one tantalising response.
There would be new caps in the 26-strong squad, he said as the All Black selectors gave their first official briefings for the season
last week.
And to the question about how many new picks, "one or two" was as much as Henry would offer.
Last season the All Black selectors managed to use 32 players in the June domestic tests, whistling up Tanerau Latimer, Isaac Ross, Wyatt Crockett, Bryn Evans, Owen Franks, Lelia Masaga, George Whitelock and Aled de Malmanche for their test debuts.
This year there is supposed to be selection streamlining with the NZ Maori squad also to be chosen, while the All Blacks want to use a reduced touring squad at the end of the year to replicate some of the planning for the 2011 World Cup.
It's a fair bet the opening All Black squad will carry a number of players whose selection will be the result of history, experience and their track record rather than any great consistent showings in the Super 14.
Call it what you like. Selectors' prerogative, intuition, knowledge or nous. It does not matter. It is their team, the group of men they have faith in and want to shape into playing their particular gameplan. Form, in the selectors' eyes, is a very different commodity from that which appeals to the rest of us.
When Frank Bunce and Walter Little were going around at the birth of the Super rugby series, their form was variable, but they were automatic All Black selections. In more recent times, a fit Ali Williams would get through the Super campaigns without any significant impact but then turn it on in the test series.
The All Black panel has bucketloads of statistics, facts, medical reports, skills analysis, bonding patterns, eating habits and psychological data on each player which is not available to the public. As Henry said they have also had time this season to sit back and analyse the changes in patterns which have flowed from the rule revisions.
They have been able to watch the impact of the changed interpretations at the breakdown, sift through the data and then pinpoint players whose talents and range of skills blend best with the new styles.
The All Black staff were bullish about their chances in June and the Tri-Nations series though they thought the annual clashes with the Springboks and Wallabies would be the toughest yet in their tenure.
Assistant coach Wayne Smith did not believe the struggles of New Zealand sides in the Super 14 would translate into similar difficulties for the All Blacks. "My thoughts on that are that the Super 14 is a poor indicator of how your national team is going to go," Smith said. "The All Blacks are their own entity."
In his briefing last week, Henry was satisfied with the depth of resources for the back three and halfback although he acknowledged there were no "standout" choices for the No 9 jersey.
He had strength through the loose forwards to chose from, two very experienced hookers who were also leaders and props who were showing signs of progress.
However he was looking for five-eighths cover to back up Daniel Carter and had a few decisions to make with three of the frontline locks damaged.
Injured fullback Mils Muliaina and lock Tom Donnelly may get in some club rugby after the Super series is over, but that uncertainty and their lack of matchplay has excluded them from this form selection.
With five weeks left until the All Blacks are chosen after the Super 14 final, injuries will cut into calculations while others will rachet up their chances of selection retention.
On form, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Hosea Gear, Luke McAlister, Andy Ellis, Rodney So'oialo, Liam Messam, Isaac Ross, Bryn Evans and Tony Woodcock who made last year's squads, are off the pace. A number will be picked because of their history, but not in this squad of 12 backs and 14 forwards.
New faces would be Israel Dagg who has been a highlight in a low-resolution Highlanders group, kicks goals and has made a real shake at fullback.
In midfield the scrap to balance Ma'a Nonu would be between Ryan Crotty and Benson Stanley, two players who have brought low error rates and a steady hand to their work, men who contribute so much to their teammates' success.
Four All Black halfbacks Jimmy Cowan, Andy Ellis, Brendon Leonard and Piri Weepu have not sparked regularly and the best of the bunch at this stage are Alby Mathewson and Kahn Fotuali'i. They have shown strong core skills and added a running dimension which makes them more of a threat.
In the forwards it seems a waste to have a backup for Richie McCaw and a similar rationale could be used in discussing options to backup Daniel Carter at first five-eighths. None have demanded inclusion and if a deputy is deemed surplus to the team needs it would open up room for another exciting young talent like Robbie Fruean or a real outsider like Rene Ranger.
Room has to be made for Victor Vito, a young man destined for the top and displaying the sort of form which he brought to all other levels of his career.
If Donnelly does not scrub up in time, young Sam Whitelock has displayed all the attributes to partner his seasoned Crusaders' teammate Brad Thorn. More experienced men like Chris Jack or Bryn Evans might bring a safer choice but Whitelock has the game, the frame and the temperament for the future.
Others who came close to the mix were No 8 Thomas Waldrom, lock Josh Beckhuis and tighthead prop Charlie Faumuina but with a reduced squad size, they have to wait a little longer.
Stating their case
Sam Whitelock
The youngest of three brothers at the Crusaders, he has kept Isaac Ross and Chris Jack out of the team for long periods. He has a 2.02m, 109kg frame to cope with this heavy-duty portfolio and the flinty temperament needed to stay near the apex of his craft. Learning at the left hand of Brad Thorn will have helped this bloke who appeals as someone with the clout to replace Ali Williams.
Kahn Fotuali'i
The terror from Tasman has made a huge impression after getting some regular starts at halfback for the Crusaders. He has experience, he has been around for a while and appeals as someone who backs his instincts rather than just operating to a pre-game formula. Snappy pass, good communicator and some gas over the ground - watch out for a rails run from the nuggety 27-year-old.
Victor Vito
This guy can take the blindside flanker role to another level. He has the clout to play tight, the experience to dig in for heavy-duty work all night and he also has the explosive power and speed to split a game open or take advantage of attacking moments. Into his second year at this level, Vito has stood out in a fitful pack, but he also has many subtle touches to his game.
Form squad
Israel Dagg, Cory Jane, Joe Rokocoko, Zac Guildford, Conrad Smith, Isaia Toeava, Ma'a Nonu, Ryan Crotty, Daniel Carter, Stephen Donald, Alby Mathewson, Kahn Fotuali'i, Kieran Read, Victor Vito, Richie McCaw, Jerome Kaino, Adam Thomson, Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Anthony Boric, Owen Franks, Neemia Tialata, Wyatt Crockett, Ben Franks, Andrew Hore, Keven Mealamu.
