All Blacks: Heritage card only trump left to play

All Black first five-eighths Dan Carter. Photo / Getty Images

The All Black axis of excellence, so vital, so special and so statistically tangible, will almost certainly be broken at the end of next year.

Daniel Carter is not hard-wired the same way as Richie McCaw when it comes to career goals and the greatest first five New Zealand has produced could, probably will, shut the door on his test career after the World Cup.

There would be no shame if the New Zealand Rugby Union begged Carter to stay. That's probably what it'll come to as their options are limited.

When they approached Carter's people in September, hoping to start talks about a contract extension, they were told he wanted to assess his options in Europe before deciding.

There was no surprise in that or in the interest from the continent. What took the NZRU, and possibly Carter's entourage by surprise, was the money on offer. Everyone knew his talent, knew the offers would be top end, but not necessarily off the scale as they have proven to be.

Perpignan, Toulon and Racing Metro are believed to have put in excess of €1m a season on the table, a package the NZRU can't get even remotely close to.

They emptied what they could into Carter's pocket in 2008 - thought to be about $700,000 a season - and could scrape together that sort of package again. Carter's endorsement work in New Zealand could bring his earnings up to about $1m a season.

But that's only half of what he'd earn offshore.

He's done the sabbatical already and all the NZRU can hope for is that Carter can't give up the drug of test football. That's all they have left - the heritage and legacy card.

If Carter walks after the World Cup, will he be able to live with that decision further down the track? Will he have done all he can as an All Black?

New Zealand generally is quick to dismiss players once they reach 30; seeing them as past it and start agitating to find the next big thing.

But Carter will be only 29 after the World Cup and his best may yet be to come. He shows no signs of ageing - the significant injuries of the past two years have failed to take anything from him.

That's partly because Carter is the consummate professional. He's a details man; never cutting corners at training or with his rehabilitation. The hard work is always done and the results are obvious.

It's also because he's such a rare talent. He can escape trouble by any number of means. His dancing feet are his preference but his speed of mind sees him move early into positions of safety. If he ever does get caught, he's freakishly strong, has a surprising fend, stays on his feet for a surprisingly long time and recycles.

He was the official man of the match at Twickenham and Lansdowne Road, the latter award coming as much for his goal-kicking as his general guidance of the black machinery.

Maybe the next 12 months will take their toll; maybe he will suddenly appear to be on the downhill run - but that seems unlikely right now. Brian O'Driscoll, three years older than Carter, was still massively influential in Dublin; still capable of a glorious one-handed scoop to claim a try. Jonny Wilkinson is still playing tests and talks of his legacy being incomplete.

Carter could still be the best No 10 at the 2015 World Cup - all of which the NZRU must surely be making a big deal of around the negotiating table? If they can't get that point over, maybe they should let the All Black skipper have a go.

Unlike Carter, McCaw is veering towards extending his stay in New Zealand. He still loves test rugby and he can see that, as arguably the greatest player of the professional age, he can instigate a mind-shift in the next generation if he finishes his career in New Zealand.

"I think the All Blacks being successful, people really want to be in the team and the lure of going overseas lessens," he says. "That's what I want to see - people really hanging out to try to make this team. The legacy of the All Blacks I want to see is that it is the team to be in.

"If you look at the average age of our guys, it is probably mid-20s. That is an indication we have a tight group that want to be here. These guys haven't even bothered looking [offshore] because they want to stay and play for the All Blacks and I hope it stays that way."

An entire nation hopes it stays that way. The All Blacks aren't ready to live without Carter. Even in a year it's unlikely.

The statistics are a sobering reminder of the influence of the Carter-McCaw axis. Between 2004 and 2010, the All Blacks have lost 13 games - only six when Carter and McCaw both started. Their influence is phenomenal and it could go on for years yet if the NZRU can keep Carter.

Hope is fading. They have just one card left - but it has trumped before.