His case to start appears strong, especially with Carter having been used mainly at second five since he returned to action in mid-March against the Cheetahs. The great man has been a peripheral figure for much of that time: the Crusaders have indulged in plenty of kick and chase, the first part being delivered mainly by Tom Taylor and Israel Dagg.
When they go wide, they tend to go to Robbie Fruean early, making it hard for Carter to get his hands on the ball. His main contribution has been defensive - but although he's a brave and solid tackler, it's not the part of his portfolio that excites.
Yet despite the evidence of the past eight weeks or so, it has to be Carter who slips into his beloved All Black No 10 shirt and takes command of the June test series.
The next few weeks are likely to provide a reminder of his class as the Crusaders appear to have shelved the experiment of him being used at second five.
The Irish tests are a job for a proven campaigner. The visitors will be lively, organised and aggressive, while the All Blacks could be a touch nervous, tentative and rusty coming together for the first time since the World Cup. Space will be at a premium, reading the game will be vital and playing rugby in all the right places is imperative. For all Cruden's improvements, it's still not certain he can do that in the test arena.
In the World Cup final, he suddenly looked a boy among men - running across the French backline, presenting himself as the target he became. Caught up in the tension of the tournament and the desperation to find a hero to divert the injury crises at first five, it was easy to forget that before coming off the bench midway through the quarter-final, Cruden's last test action had been his capitulation in Sydney 12 months earlier.
No one wants to hold that torrid night against him for the rest of his career but it should serve as a reminder of his inexperience. Perhaps, too, it alludes to a potential frailty in test rugby's key skill-sets - Cruden is a natural runner and ball player, which is perfect for Super Rugby, but he's not a natural game manager or tactical kicker. Carter, on the other hand, lives for the pressure that comes only when the All Black legacy is on the line. He thrives in it, takes ownership of the game plan and the team's destiny. He's an 85-test All Black and his cultured left boot knows where and when to poke the ball long and high. He knows how to turn and torment opponents, when to let his runners loose and when to back himself to have a tilt and probe for holes.
It's of little concern that he hasn't done much of that to date. He has this magical ability to flick a switch and suddenly be a towering, world-class force. It's the old adage of class being permanent and, in Carter's case, always lurking close to the surface. Nor is it necessarily much of a concern that last night was only his second game as the preferred goal-kicker.
Crusaders and All Blacks doctor Deb Robinson says the careful management of Carter has been designed with the aim of having the 30-year-old in peak condition by June.
"That's always been the goal," says Robinson. "We have to adjust that from week to week but we hope he will be able to do his normal preparation by then. He has been kicking but it hasn't been the same load he would normally do and a player like Dan doesn't want to be kicking in a match when he's not had the preparation he would like.
"The challenge has been around the end of range position when he goalkicks. Goalkicking is different to everything else so he can't do a squat to strengthen his leg. He has been graduating his kicking load and building his confidence."
The barrier to building the load has been some stiffness and pain in his leg, but that is reducing as the muscles strengthen and his body adjusts to life post-surgery.
There has been a definite sense of Carter playing within himself; of subconsciously holding something back.
He'll shed those inhibitions in June - the black jersey holding the ultimate restorative powers - and remind the world he's far from a fading force. Cruden's time will come in cameo appearances off the bench at first and maybe a start against Argentina.
He has a bright future for sure but short-term, Carter's is brighter.
