Rugby: Times, they are a-changin'

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The All Black schedule of 2012 carries similarities to the beginning of the last World Cup cycle four years ago. But, as Gregor Paul reports, the selection approach could be different this time round.

As fate would have it, the All Blacks will start the new World Cup cycle with a test against Ireland, just as they did the year after the last World Cup, and will end 2012 with a test at Twickenham - also just as they did in 2008.

In 2008, the team that started against Ireland on June 7 in Wellington was only four players different to the one that signed off with a 32-6 victory against England on November 29.

Joe Rokocoko started on the right wing - as he would have done had he not been injured - at Twickenham instead of Anthony Tuitavake; Jimmy Cowan was the starting halfback in November and not Andy Ellis; Tony Woodcock, injured in June, returned to start at loosehead against England, forcing Neemia Tialata to tighthead and John Afoa to the bench; and Keven Mealamu wore No 2 in London instead of coming off the bench as he did in Wellington.

Consistency of selection was the theme back then and really, if everyone had been fit in June, the team would have shown just one change between the clash with Ireland and the game against England.

Cowan was the only man, against the odds given his ongoing issues with alcohol at the time, who began the year a second choice and ended it as first.

The All Blacks won 13 of their 15 tests and it was, bar the blip in the early part of the Tri Nations when Richie McCaw was injured and they suffered consecutive losses, a memorably good year.

The selectors had no need to tinker and develop - they had, with the exception of Brad Thorn, a group that they knew were young enough and good enough to be retained through to 2011.

It was about putting that group on the park and refining and improving what they did. Things are likely to be different in 2012.

Consistency of selection may not be such a central theme and the 22-man squad named for the December 1 clash at Twickenham may show a number of changes to the one that played last night.

That process of change is inevitable because there are a handful of senior players already under pressure to justify their selections. Some will bounce back to form, others won't and even if they do, age is against them and plenty will drop out of the frame in 2013 and 2014. The question is more about the speed of change, rather than its likelihood. Will we see a rapid injection of new faces or will it be a gradual, gentle transition?

"I think it really depends on the form of the experienced guys," says All Blacks coach Steve Hansen. "If they are still playing rugby of an extremely high quality, then they make themselves very difficult to move on because they are doing the job you want them to do. They have got the experience to go with it. What we do know is that we have lost some players and there will be opportunities along the way. There will be injuries."

Much will depend also on whether the selectors want to manufacture the evolution of the side. That is, do they want to chug along backing the senior player in every instance until he plays his way out of the team? Or do they want to give some of the youngsters game time throughout the year and potentially fast-track the exit of some older stars?

If they go down the latter route, and it is probable they intend to, it will raise the prospect of the dreaded rotation word being used.

"There is no doubt that giving players experience won us a World Cup," says Hansen. "Stephen Donald came on and is a classic example. So, too, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden, they are great examples of that. What we have to be mindful of is that we are giving people opportunities along the way. We have enough test matches this year to do that. We are not going to use rotation. We don't have to make wholesale changes."

Hansen cites the exclusion of Ellis as being indicative of the way he and his selectors are thinking.

"Andy missed out because we wanted an experienced halfback and a younger halfback. The experienced guy we wanted was [Piri] Weepu. The inexperienced guy was [Aaron] Smith and he is starting. We could have waited and gone with the two older guys but I think that was avoiding the inevitable."

There is also a less appreciated factor driving the evolution of personnel. It's not just about being wary of ageing legs suddenly giving up. The All Blacks are, in the modern era at least, in the unprecedented position of starting the year as world champions.

It can be, as history alludes to, harder to find motivation from a position of success. Those who have felt the hurt of failure tend to have it easier in terms of striking the right attitude. Hansen knows that his squad needs an edge - those who have been around for a long time need a sense of urgency, any feeling of complacency swept from them.

"The other big difference [between 2008 and 2012] is that we lost in 2007 - we were knocked out in the quarter-finals and 2008 looked after itself in terms of attitude. We really struggled in 2009 but we came through 2008 okay. But with this group, we are coming off the huge success of winning the Cup so we have to draw a line in the sand and create new goals and scale new heights to the point where the guys are excited by the challenge, and having new blood around makes that easier."