KEY POINTS:
It's fitting that the deciding match for the season looks set to be such an intense, tight affair.
The Storm have three minor premierships and last year's title in the background as they go into tomorrow night's NRL grand final.
They have beaten the Eagles in the last
three encounters between the sides, 16-10 at Brookvale Oval in round 22 back in August, 26-4 at Olympic Park in round five back in April and - most significantly - 34-8 in the grand final last year.
They were the raging title favourites all season, until week one of the playoff series, when the Warriors went to Melbourne and showed everyone else how to beat them.
To beat the Storm you have to score points because, with nine State of Origin players as well as two Kiwi internationals, they most certainly will. A winning team against Melbourne will have the personnel and the desire to attack.
Manly will have learnt from watching that Warriors' win. The Aucklanders made great ground from dummy-half. They smartly stifled the Storm's main attacking players, Greg Inglis, Israel Folau and Billy Slater, by keeping the ball away from them as much as possible.
The latter is a tactic the Sea Eagles should be able to replicate, via the kicking game of halfback Matt Orford and five-eighth Jamie Lyon and with Glenn Stewart and Anthony Watmough harassing them in defence.
And they should have an advantage in the former as well. When it comes to running from dummy-half, Melbourne will miss their regular hooker Cameron Smith, who sees out his suspension for what has become the most talked about grapple tackle of the season.
The rookie Russell Aitken was merely adequate, and nothing near as spectacular as Smith, against Cronulla last weekend.
The Sea Eagles upset Storm halfback Cooper Cronk with niggle at Brookvale Oval in August, a tactic the Storm players said might have worked then but won't work again.
The Storm have had one extra day to recover after last weekend's final playoffs. In their favour, the Melburnians will know that the Sea Eagles got far more of a bashing from the Warriors than they themselves got from Cronulla.
And then there's the Warrior Curse: The syndrome whereby teams that play the Warriors - whether home or away and whether they beat the Warriors or not - often lose in the following week.
Certainly the Sea Eagles were hobbling as they made their way up the tunnel at the Sydney Football Stadium last Saturday night, none more so than their captain and halfback Orford.
Much swings on his performance - many rate him a choker in the big games but he is Dally M player of the year for a reason and he certainly didn't choke against the Warriors, their biggest game of the season so far.
Orford carries an ankle injury into the final and centre Steve Matai needs surgery to remove bone fragments from his right shoulder but plays on regardless.
Glenn Stewart suffered a corked thigh in what was a tougher contest with the Auckland club than the scoreline suggests but has been cleared to take the field. Melbourne, meanwhile, have no injury concerns which, given their suspension dramas, must come as some relief.
No team has won the NRL grand final two years in succession since the Broncos did it in 1992/1993 (they also won the weakened 10-team Super League in 1997 and the 22-team NRL in 1998).
After this game the Storm will lose Matt Geyer (retiring), Jeremy Smith and Sika Manu (Dragons) and Israel Folau (Broncos). They've had a fantastic run, but it's a good bet that the Storm won't be back as serious title contenders in 2009, and that should be a big motivation.
Manly have plenty to drive them too, not least the 34-8 loss in the 2007 title game in which they simply failed to compete. The Sea Eagles will also lose big names next year: club stalwart Steve Menzies is off to Bradford, Steve Bell joins the Catalans and Mark Bryant departs for the Celtic Crusaders.
This really is a 50/50 game, primarily because the NRL judiciary made it that way by banning Melbourne's captain and dynamo, Smith.
