Although it is too early to talk about playoff positions, the Warriors and Raiders may look back at their NRL round 11 clash as a turning point in their season.
Both are struggling to recapture the form of 2008 and come into this game off serious losses.
Warriors coach Ivan
Cleary has made one significant change, bringing Joel Moon back to five-eighth at the expense of Nathan Fien, who has struggled to impose himself on attack, with the competent Patrick Ah Van returning to the right centre spot usually occupied by Brent Tate.
Raiders coach David Furner sweats on the availability of his captain Alan Tongue, who suffered a broken right thumb in the loss in Melbourne, and of centre Todd Carney, who received a sternum injury. Tongue is teak-tough and should play, Carney probably not.
Furner has threatened changes to his squad right up to game time as he seeks redemption by introducing competition for spots. The Warriors have a six-man bench for the same reason.
The job for the Warriors at Canberra's Bruce Stadium tomorrow is simple but one they could not complete last week - to better the opposition forwards. A combination of lost ball, quick line-speed from the Cowboys and the winning of the grapple in the tackle meant the Warriors forwards never got a roll-on, their halves had no space and the attack faltered badly.
As the Cowboys pack did, the Canberra forwards beat them for size. Scott Logan (191cm and 108kg), Tom Learoyd-Lahrs (191cm and 112kg) and David Shillington (194cm and 111kg) all carry more bulk than the biggest Warrior, Steve Price (193cm and 107kg). The Warriors cannot afford to allow them get a head start in the ground-gain and on the scoreboard, then have to tackle those monsters all day.
Over their 10 games so far, the Auckland forwards are averaging good returns through Price (151 metres), Russell Packer (119m) and Sam Rapira (104m) and when they do that the backs profit, via wing Manu Vatuvei (136m), Wade McKinnon (131m) and Jerome Ropati (108m). Last week all six fell short of those marks.
There are two starters who spark much of the Raiders' attack - the dummy-half line-breaks created by skipper Tongue and the ability of Bronson Harrison (183cm and 102kg) to draw tacklers and off-load. The NRL statistics rate him as the best off-loader in the NRL.
From there, the backline dangers are Terry Campese, who started the season with a hiss and a roar but has fallen away in recent games as the Raiders have lost four on the trot, and left centre Joel Monaghan. Both need big games to secure selection for New South Wales when the State of Origin sides are named on Monday.
Monaghan (average 89m) has the strength to break tackles and open defensive lines, while Campese is the back-up expert, creating chances for others as link man so half-chances are capitalised on. Both have failed to impose themselves on games recently. Poor completion rates have been the killer for both teams.
History favours the home side, the Warriors winless in Australia's isolated capital city since the Super League year 1997. But the Raiders have won just once in Canberra this year - a 23-18 victory over North Queensland and once away, 24-14 over the hopeless Sharks.
The Warriors have a chance to cement themselves in the top-eight in the next few weeks when they face the Tigers at Mt Smart, though Price will be away with the Queensland team, then the Sharks away and Newcastle at home before their second bye.
RAIDERS
David Milne
Adrian Purtell
Justin Carney
Joel Monaghan
Phil Graham
Terry Campese
Marc Herbert
David Shillington
Glen Buttriss
Scott Logan
Bronson Harrison
Tom Learoyd-Lahrs
Alan Tongue (c)
WARRIORS
Wade McKinnon
Denan Kemp
Patrick Ah Van
Jerome Ropati
Manu Vatuvei
Joel Moon
Stacey Jones
Sam Rapira
Ian Henderson
Steve Price (c)
Simon Mannering
Jacob Lillyman
Michael Luck
Canberra (from): Joe Picker, Trevor Thurling, Nigel Plum, Josh Miller, Dane Tilse.
Warriors (from): Lance Hohaia, Russell Packer, Jesse Royal, Ben Matulino, Lewis Brown, Aaron Heremaia
All eyes will be on Joel Moon, who replaces Nathan Fien in the Warriors to play the Raiders at Canberra tomorrow. Photo / Brett Phibbs.
Although it is too early to talk about playoff positions, the Warriors and Raiders may look back at their NRL round 11 clash as a turning point in their season.
Both are struggling to recapture the form of 2008 and come into this game off serious losses.
Warriors coach Ivan
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