KEY POINTS:
"Tell me it's not true," Ivan Cleary apparently exclaimed after discovering Wade McKinnon would be out for the season with a knee injury.
Immediately the TAB lengthened the odds on the Warriors winning this year's competition and Australian pundits quickly followed by writing them off.
In the
Sydney Morning Herald, for example, only one of their seven league writers picked the Warriors to make the top eight. One even had them finishing 12th, even though they finished fourth last season.
The NRL is dominated by Sydney clubs so it's not unusual for the Warriors to be something of an afterthought in Australia, but people in Australia still think the Warriors possess a massive forward pack that runs out of steam in the final 20 minutes.
Daily Telegraph league writer Steve Mascord was another who discounted their chances.
"Two words," Mascord said when asked why he thought the Warriors would fail to replicate their stunning year of 2007. "Wade and McKinnon.
"It would be the same if the Cowboys went through the season without Jonathan Thurston. Most people see McKinnon as the Warriors' best player and fullback has become such an important attacking position."
The stats tend to agree. Six of the top 10 metre-eaters last season were fullbacks - the rest were props - and eight of the top 10 tackle breakers and the top four linebreakers were fullbacks.
"One player doesn't make a team," skipper Steve Price says.
"Teams like the Cowboys showed last year that even though they had injuries to key players, self-belief in the squad got them to within one game of the grand final."
Despite McKinnon's absence, there's a quiet confidence circulating around Mt Smart Stadium, and it's not just because the salary cap is in order. They have a stable side and club, and their coach exudes calmness.
They have no time to ease themselves into the competition, however, with games against Parramatta (home) and Manly (away) following the one against Melbourne.
"Games early in the season aren't always won by the best team," Price says. "It's the team that controls the footy because everyone is a bit rusty and trying to get used to interpretations of the new rules and combinations and the weather is hotter.
"I have been in teams that are supposed to do well and there's more pressure than ever [at the start of the season]. But everyone has been training hard and you're at your freshest and keen.
"If you play the top teams in round 10 or 12 they might have their rhythm and confidence by then."
By round 12 last year, the Warriors were in danger of drifting well off the pace before turning things around in dramatic fashion. It provided a salutary lesson about writing a team off.
They certainly aren't guaranteed a spot in the eight this season but it needs to be remembered that just making the eight isn't good enough if titles are on the agenda.
Since the NRL first came into existence in 1998, no team has won from outside the top four.
The Warriors will still give fans a good ride this season but it's not clear how it will end up without McKinnon.
Unfortunately, as Shakespeare wrote in Macbeth, `what's done is done'.
