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Home / Sport / League / Warriors

<i>Michael Brown:</i> Top-four place not beyond possibility

10 Mar, 2007 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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Opinion by

KEY POINTS:

There's a school of thought that suggests the Warriors would have made the top eight last season if it wasn't for the salary cap debacle.

While statistically correct - they finished four points behind the Eels and had a superior points differential - it's a little simplistic.

The Warriors won four of their last five matches, including a brilliant 24-20 win over a Storm side that had won 11 in a row and 15 at home.

But it came at a time when they played with little pressure.

Although they had a mathematical chance of sneaking into the eight, it was a longshot and the Warriors played like a team that had nothing to lose. In the past couple of years, the Warriors have struggled when the pressure is turned up a notch.

Most teams judge success and failure on whether they make the top eight. In reality, this should be the minimum goal because it's a generous system that allows the eighth-best side in what was a 15-team competition (the addition of the Titans brings it up to 16) to make the playoffs.

Teams rarely go far if they finish outside of the top four. Last year, the top three sides at the end of the regular season - Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos - were the last three standing before the Broncos beat the Storm in an epic grand final.

In 2004 and 2003, the top two teams contested the grand final, while in 2002 the fourth-placed Roosters defeated minor premiers the Warriors in the final.

Of course, 2005 was something of an anomaly when the Tigers, who finished fourth after 26 rounds, beat the Cowboys, who were fifth, in the grand final. This shows it is possible, but the Warriors should still aim for a top-four finish in 2007.

It's a target Ivan Cleary's side can achieve but a number of rival clubs will fancy their chances as well. Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos, Knights, Cowboys, Dragons, Eels, Sea Eagles...

There is, though, a more balanced and settled look to the 2007 Warriors, with greater depth than 12 months ago.

Last weekend's convincing 36-6 trial win over the Bulldogs - although we shouldn't get carried away with a trial result - showed that if injuries hit or form drops there are players capable of stepping up.

Wade McKinnon looks a good buy to replace Brent Webb and Michael Witt brings a different dimension with his kicking game and will push Jerome Ropati hard for the No 6 jumper.

Likewise, players who were relatively green at the start of last season now have a more seasoned look to them, meaning less responsibility will fall on old hands like Steve Price and Ruben Wiki.

But you just get a sense there's something missing, a big-game ballplayer to unlock opposition defences with a game on the line.

The forward pack is one of the better going around and there a number of players with great potential, but no one in the mould of a Lockyer, Johns, Thurston, Gasnier, Prince, Inglis, Cronk, Hodges or Orford. Some might turn out to be among this class, and there has been talk of bringing a marquee player to the club in 2008, but they are not there yet.

The Warriors have worked hard to recruit and retain team players and they will win a few games on the back of this strong team unity they appear to have built up.

But they don't have a long kicking game and also lack the size across the park that premiership-winning sides generally have, despite perceptions that the Warriors are among the biggest in the competition.

Cleary has talked about a three-year plan: the first year (2006) one of development, the second one of consolidation and the third when they push for the title.

It's a sound plan but most fans think only of the here and now and will demand success in 2007.

The Warriors have the ability to beat any side on their day. They just need to ensure their day comes more often than not because there won't be anything like the salary cap to fall back on this time.

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