KEY POINTS:
The more you think of ways the Warriors might mount a tilt at the NRL title, the more you keep coming back to the loss of Wade McKinnon. Damn that knee and all that might fall because of it.
The rugby league premiership opens this weekend with Melbourne - the Warriors' first opponents - red-hot favourites to retain the trophy won in a superb grand final performance against Manly last season.
Until what appeared to be a minor McKinnon injury turned out to be a cataclysmic season-ending disaster, the Warriors were as good a bet as many to be among the challengers. But no more, I fear.
The Warriors minus Wade is like Smith without Jones, Butch without Sundance, Morecambe without Wise, Hillary without Bill - or maybe that should be with Bill.
Wade and the Warriors are a double act - he's the star turn who makes the efforts of the straight men worthwhile.
McKinnon ran and ran last year, in the process, running the Warriors into contention. He was so good that the departed Brent Webb became Brent Who as McKinnon turned his side into long-range scoring specialists. It was often great to watch and highly effective.
Webb followed by McKinnon. That's a mighty fullback trick, even if the Auckland club relies on imports.
And for their next trick: Lance Hohaia. I don't think so.
That damning word "utility" seems attached to all of McKinnon's potential replacements.
Aidan Kirk and Patrick Ah Van have none of the gamebreaking credentials that McKinnon arrived with last year although it is unfair to doubt Kirk before seeing him at NRL level.
Ah Van shows hints of footballing instinct, but they also go haywire and he lacks McKinnon's bullish confidence which, unfortunately, can even turn the referee rooms into a shattered china shop at times.
As for Hohaia, he is a high-priced leftover from the Mick Watson regime and still at the club, presumably, because it would cost him too much to leave for a more secure starting position in England. Hohaia has taken up more positions than a US presidential candidate. He's not without ability but, like many political campaigners, he gets found out down the stretch.
Hohaia doesn't have the speed and if he really had the fullback instincts, he would have been tried there long before now. That's not to bag Hohaia per se - it's not his fault that he's being touted as a potential answer to the fullback problem. The scary thought for the Warriors is that they must test players at No. 1 during the season.
If you look through the team lists of the NRL, you see the McKinnon problem in all its glory.
Fullbacks are the last mavericks in rugby league. If you haven't got a gamebreaker there, you probably don't have a championship-contending game. It's not a place for stop gaps and tradesmen - it's a place that demands superstar specialists who have the nerve to unwrap their skills.
Fullback isn't a position, it's a message of hope for fans and teammates. From Matt Bowen to Billy Slater, they are winners on the field and at the turnstiles. If fullbacks are not reading the breaks, they are performing heroic twists and turns to cover the ones coming their way. As much as any player, the modern fullback is born and not made.
The best fullbacks are a combination of Astaire and Rogers - Buck Rogers that is. They have dancing feet and jetpack speed. You either have it or you don't, and without McKinnon, the Warriors don't have it.
There's another problem for the Warriors - the new interchange rule.
Reducing the interchange number from 12 to 10 is a vote against the big men, and the Warriors have colossal forwards. They may have to compensate through selection, and Simon Mannering is sure to join Micheal Luck in the workhouse. But trimming the fat will also mean losing an advantage - Epalahame Lauaki and company can give the Warriors a sledgehammer edge that is even more vital with McKinnon gone.
It's not all bad news for the Warriors. In particular, new hooker Ian Henderson might produce more immaculate and damaging work from the hub.
But for all the pluses, you keep returning to the key factor. Another relentless year from Steve Price. No Wade McKinnon. A world class outside back in Brent Tate. No Wade McKinnon. Growing experience and confidence in the halves. No Wade McKinnon. A fond farewell from Ruben Wiki. No Wade McKinnon.
As to why the Auckland club can't produce brilliant-yet-dependable outside backs from the land of Polynesian brilliance, well that's another story.
The Warriors enjoyed a miraculous run of good injury fortune as they charged to fourth last year but their luck has burst big time. They're not the only side with fragile cover for star players, but they've been hit early and hit hard.
Unfortunately, even getting the A, B, and Cs right won't cover for the loss of their X factor.
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From the strange but true file ...
Question: If pace bowler Mark Gillespie makes the starting lineup in place of spinner Jeetan Patel at the Basin Reserve, who will have the worst test wickets-per-runs average among New Zealand's five front-line bowlers? Answer: Daniel Vettori. The much-praised captain averages around 34, trailing Kyle Mills (25), Gillespie (27), Jacob Oram (32) and Chris Martin (32).
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From the bizarre but sadly true department ...
The Rugby World Cup mob has written to the media stating: "RWC 2011 will be a fantastic festival in New Zealand and will kick off in less than 1300 days, involving a stadium of 4 million people."
We are all soooooo excited ... it appears that there is only another three million days to go before New Zealand rugby stops assuming that every man, woman and child in this country lives and dies for the old kick-and-clap. Wake me up when there are about 13 days to go chaps.
