Rugby League: Against the odds? Bet on it

By PETER JESSUP

The TAB obviously believes in history repeating itself.

In setting its odds for tonight's test at New Zealand $3.30, Australia $1.30, it places great faith in the statistic that says the Kangaroos win around eight out of every nine contests with the Kiwis.

But the odds-makers have neglected several other factors, or decided that the weight of history overrides them.

These include the Kiwis' greater combined test experience (239 internationals to 77), and the individual tallies of six vastly experienced veterans - Stephen Kearney (43 tests), Ruben Wiki (37), Stacey Jones (33), Logan Swann (25), and Richard Swain and Nigel Vagana (18 each).

The Kangaroos have only two players in double figures, Andrew Johns (17) and Gorden Tallis (10).

The odds also ignore the desire to win in the Kiwi veterans, who have lost many more games than they've won. They last supped from the victory cup in 1999 in the tri-series, but even that was soured by the 24-22 loss in the final after a 22-20 win in round-play.

Much has been made of the physical nature of the contest, but therein lies an opportunity for the Kiwis to dig themselves a hole.

If they give away too many penalties for high shots, late shots, stripping, lying on the ball-carrier or flopping late in the tackle, as has been the case in some previous tests, they are goners.

Coach Daniel Anderson has no worries about the Aussies playing the penalty game to their advantage.

"[Referee] Bill Harrigan is experienced enough to know the difference between a penalty and a bloke who's milking it," he said.

Anderson said he had raised the discipline issue with the team and had spoken to individuals - those who have been penalised in the past, as he put it - about keeping a clean slate.

It will certainly be tough for the first interchanges, but as Stephen Kearney said mid-week, the suggestion the game will degenerate into a "bash-a-thon" ignores the ball-playing ability in both sides and, particularly, the Kiwis.

They have off-loaders from Wiki and Rauhihi up front to Vaealiki at the back, and attracting multiple tacklers and getting clean ball away to spark play will be their strength.

All the forwards are big and mobile. They have strength in spot-tackling that hurts.

The weaknesses are Willie Talau's lack of a kicking game and the general lack of acceleration from the mark and flat-out speed in the backs, bar Jones in the acceleration stakes and Vagana at speed.

Jones is their best over 20m, but if he breaks the line he will get run down and a second or third carrier will be needed to score.

The same applies to Talau.

None of the forwards has the gas to exploit a break from beyond 20m against a side who will defend as the Aussies can be expected to.

The Aussies have Craig Wing, who will beat all the Kiwi pack over 20m or 100m, and Luke Ricketson who would win the long run.

Out the back, Matt Sing and Anthony Minichiello have real pace, whereas only Vagana does for the Kiwis.

The New Zealanders have to dominate the tackle, but with Shane Webcke and Gorden Tallis coming at them, that's not always going to happen. They also have to pressure the Kangaroos' new boys. Anthony Minichiello at fullback should be target of all manner of high and ground kicks.

Directed at the right side, these would also pressure another debutante, Shannon Hegarty, who switches from the centres to wing and doesn't have the pace of Sing on the other flank.

Assuming decent go-forward, and with the size and experience advantage in the pack, much comes down to Stacey Jones.

Any team with Jones in it can win. He is well aware of Andrew Johns' abilities, and will know he has to outplay him.

Jones' combination with the big Kiwi forwards is the best prospect of pushing the Kangaroo line to buckle and break.

And once that is done, the combination also offers the best chance of putting someone away to the touchline.

What is required for a Kiwi win is patience on attack and execution of all their opportunities.

In 2001, the Kiwis camped on Australia's line for three goal-line drop-outs in the opening eight minutes, but couldn't score. Then the Aussies lifted. It was all over.

Last year, Richard Swain's dummy-half running gained ground for 24 early points.

But the Kangaroos clawed back 16 before the break and kept the Kiwis scoreless in the second 40.

This side have enough NRL experience to guarantee that they won't give up - there will be no blow-out.

But the Kiwis need points up. Then maybe the adrenaline, seeing the victory come closer, will lift them the final step.

They're going to need it, because the Aussie plan will be to run them ragged and run home late.

TEST HISTORY

* Played 85. Australia won 60, New Zealand 24, one draw.

* In the last 18 tests, over 12 years, Australia have won 16 and New Zealand two (in 1998, Albany, and 1999, Ericsson Stadium).

* New Zealand have not won in Sydney since 1959.

* Of the 25 tests in Sydney, the Kiwis have won five (11-10, 1908; 19-11, 1909; 21-19, 1948; 19-9, 1952; 28-12, 1959).

* The last two games in Sydney were the Anzac test 1999, which the Kiwis lost 20-14, and Anzac 2000, which they lost 52-0.