In hot conditions in Townsville the effect of any lapses in discipline will be multiplied. If the Kiwis slip up the Aussies will sense weakness and slip into autopilot. If they get enough chances near the Kiwis' line they have enough good players to crack it.
But Benji Marshall and Kieran Foran need to be patient. They need to build pressure at the end of each set with their kicks, and bring out the best in edge runners such as Frank Pritchard, Simon Mannering and Kevin Proctor. If they can trigger quick play-the-balls, Issac Luke's running game can come into play.
The second phase play needs to be managed carefully. The Kiwis have a clear edge in height in the back row that can be an advantage with players pushing through the line and off-loading, while the likes of Sam Kasiano and Ben Matulino need to choose wisely when to let the ball go.
This is the start of the campaign to defend the World Cup in 2013. The Kiwis need to forget about the idea of one-off tests, and build a winning culture, a culture of excellence.