The Dragons are in trouble and in hindsight there are a few issues which have led to their remarkable slide.
A team that was almost unbeatable has been plummeting out of contention during the last month. Their slide has taken on extra significance for the Warriors, who play them inthe penultimate NRL round next week.
I'm not brave enough to predict the Dragons are finished yet - they might turn things around against the Melbourne Storm tonight and suddenly the picture will look very different for the Warriors next week.
Somehow, I doubt this. The problems run deeper than a surface-form slump.
The departure of tough forwards Neville Costigan and Jeremy Smith after last year's title-winning season has come back to haunt the Dragons. They were the two guys who showed the way in terms of playing tough every week. In days past, key players would have been less likely to leave a championship-winning side.
Maybe their departure was linked to the salary cap. The club spent big to bring Mark Gasnier back, but if it came at the cost of losing two key forwards then this was a very debatable choice.
Coach Wayne Bennett may have slightly misjudged the situation in terms of managing the workload. A player such as Jamie Soward, who won representative honours this season, is struggling and may be under pressure physically and mentally.
All teams need to make little adjustments through the year but the Dragons appear to be at a point where they have nowhere to go. The Rabbitohs meanwhile are absolutely flying and look like they are having fun. That's an ingredient missing from St George-Illawarra.
The Warriors weren't at their best against Newcastle and I'm worried on a couple of accounts about their prospects against Penrith.
The Panthers have major motivational factors in their favour. This is their last home game of the year and footballers always want to give a memorable account of themselves in that situation. The Penrith players will be desperate to impress Warriors coach Ivan Cleary, who will be their coach next season.
I've got so much faith in the Warriors these days that I'm still tipping them to win. There is terrific experience and heart in the squad. They need to be at their best though.
