KEY POINTS:
Storm chief executive Brian Waldron has offered to buy the Penrith Panthers two kegs of beer for their Mad Monday celebrations - he could have provided more incentive by putting up half the A$100,000 that goes to the minor premiers.
The way the Panthers have been playing it
seems they've had the drinks ordered and iced for several weeks and it's virtually impossible to see them overturning frontrunners Manly.
The Storm must beat South Sydney by nine points more than the Eagles put on Penrith in order to win their second consecutive minor premiership, the JJ Giltinan Shield and the A$100,000, the disposal of which is up to the club but the money is normally divided among the players according to number of appearances.
It seems Manly will be minor premiers and are the most likely opponents for the Warriors, who look likely to sneak into eighth place as they did in 2001. And, as in 2001, they face rugby league's "big ask" in going to what will be a packed house at Brookvale Oval the following Sunday. No team has made the grandfinal from eighth place. General pattern is for eighth to be KO'd in week one.
The Storm's most likely opponents in week one of the finals are the Raiders, who should beat the Bulldogs in Canberra on Sunday and thus hand Canterbury the wooden spoon.
The Sharks will finish third if Melbourne and Manly win. There is a three-way possibility for places four, five and six which will be filled by the Roosters, Broncos and Dragons but not necessarily in that order. This weekend's results seem likely to pit the Sharks against the Dragons next weekend in what would be a 50/50 game, St George clearly the better attackers and the Sharks way better defenders.
It's hard to see any of the teams below five on the table making it to the October 5 title decider for the simple reason that they do not have established halves pairings. Cooper Cronk and Greg Inglis for Melbourne look best there, Peter Wallace and Darren Lockyer at the Broncos next-best and I'm now beginning to lean to those two as finalists after earlier favouring a repeat of the Storm thrashing of Manly in 2007.
The Sea Eagles look deficient in the halves, mechanical and predictable, though Jamie Lyon's return may change that this weekend.
The Sharks have the brilliant kicking game of Brett Kimmorley and Brett Seymour outside. And the Roosters the Mitchell Pearce-Braith Anasta show, though there have to be questions about Pearce, just 19, coping in the big games to come.
The Dragons, Raiders, Knights and Warriors have all shifted and shunted and juggled in that area and remain short of the benchmark set by the rest. It has been a year of weekly upsets. Thank the salary cap.
Only one thing is sure this weekend - 2008 will be over for eight teams and there will be around 200 players getting juiced.
I wonder what the headlines will be in Tuesday's newspaper - or even on Wednesday or Thursday next week - given the repetitive bad behaviour of various NRL players during the season when they are supposed to be drinking in moderation.