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SYDNEY - It took just one stray pass to decide last year's State of Origin rugby league series.
New South Wales fullback Brett Hodgson's howler under his own posts gift-wrapped Queensland captain Darren Lockyer the series-clinching try late in match three in Melbourne.
A moment of madness or
magic could be all that splits the combatants in the 2007 edition of an epic rivalry, which is locked at 38 wins apiece, going into tomorrow night's series opener at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium.
The home ground advantage and the all-Kangaroos quartet in the key positions -- five-eighth Lockyer, halfback Johnathan Thurston, fullback Karmichael Hunt and hooker Cameron Smith -- sees coach Mal Meninga's Queensland installed as rare favourites.
Queensland were today paying $1.70 at the New South Wales TAB to win match one, with the visitors shortening to $2.10, while the Maroons were $1.60 to take out a second consecutive series.
"I've never won a (Origin) game at Suncorp ... all the time we seem to get flogged, not just beaten. They really give it to us," said NSW forward Willie Mason.
Mind games are certain. NSW coach Graham Murray also embraced the underdog tag but claimed that wouldn't sit well with his opponents.
"That mentality, that psyche of being favourites doesn't sit well with Queensland sides."
Queensland hold most of the aces but their preparation has hit more snags.
Enforcer Carl Webb was today ruled out due to a hamstring strain, giving Melbourne Storm giant Antonio Kaufusi an Origin debut, while Lockyer is still recovering from a wrenched ankle which was badly bruised less than a week ago.
A year ago at Suncorp, one of the world's most imposing oval-ball venues for visiting sides, Queensland dealt out a 30-6 hiding in match two to set up the thrilling decider.
But this is the tense series opener, as most league watchers gleefully await the early stoush, and two even forward packs try to hammer a dent into their opposites.
Channel Nine's Footy Show recently ranked the top-10 memorable Origin moments, and instead of length-of-the field tries and individual brilliance, it was the all-in brawl in the inaugural 1980 series that emerged the winner.
With the fireworks crackling, in the past three years the largest winning margin in the series opener has been just four points.
NSW have taken more selection gambles and introduced five Origin newcomers: Jarrod Mullen, Jarryd Hayne, Brett White, Kurt Gidley and Anthony Tupou.
Mullen, 20, the brilliant young Newcastle playmaker, was the most-discussed selection as NSW fans look to a hero to replace their favourite Novacastrian Andrew Johns.
Selected ahead of seasoned campaigners Brett Kimmorley and Matt Orford, most pundits predict Mullen will make the grade but former test and Origin wing Mat Rogers reckoned otherwise.
"I'm not so sure he's ready for it, and I'd have to say I'm actually a little nervous for him," Rogers wrote on the nine-msn website.
Lockyer admitted Mullen's kicking game would be placed under huge pressure.
Even Mullen's mother and girlfriend have both graced the front pages amid the hype, his mother Leeann pleading with NSW fans not to "crucify" her son if he falls short.
Mullen, guided by Johns' mentoring, can lean on the experience of Sydney Roosters pair Braith Anasta (five-eighth) and 2005 man-of-the-series Anthony Minichiello returning to fullback from injury.
Captain Danny Buderus was excited about leading a young Blues side, including his Newcastle whiz kids Mullen and Gidley.
"It's revitalising, (the selectors have) got fresh faces -- young and hungry," Buderus said.
STATE OF ORIGIN - THE FACTS AND STATS
Games: Played 78, NSW 38, Queensland 38, Draws 2
Series: NSW 12, Queensland 11, Draws 2
Points scored: NSW 1242, Qld 1236
Record at Suncorp Stadium: Played 39, Qld 23, NSW 15, Draws 1
Biggest Wins: NSW 56 bt Queensland 16 at Stadium Australia (June 7, 2000), Queensland 36 bt NSW 6 at Lang Park (May 23, 1989), Queensland 36 bt NSW 6 at Suncorp Stadium (July 16, 2003)
Most appearances for Queensland: 34 - Allan Langer
Most appearances for NSW: 31 - Brad Fittler
Most points for Queensland: 161 - Mal Meninga
Most points for NSW: 129 - Michael O'Connor
2006 series results
Game 1 NSW bt Qld 17-16 at Telstra Stadium
Game 2 Qld bt NSW 30-6 at Suncorp Stadium
Game 3 Qld bt NSW 16-14 at Telstra Dome
Queensland wins series 2-1
2007 series Game One
Total Origin caps: Qld 137, NSW 100
Origin Debutants: Qld 1 (Neville Costigan), NSW 5 (Jarrod Mullen, Jarryd Hayne, Kurt Gidley, Brett White, Anthony Tupou)
Most Origin caps: Queensland - Darren Lockyer 24, NSW - Danny Buderus 15
- NZPA, AAP