League: Flying start imperative for Anzac win

Manu Vatuvei scored two tries in the 2005 Tri Nations final. Photo / Getty Images

If history is any guide, a good start is imperative for New Zealand success in next Friday's Anzac test.

A Kiwis victory looks improbable, especially without Thomas Leuluai, Kieran Foran and Sonny Bill Williams, but it's even more unlikely if they are not in touch after the first 40 minutes.

Only three times in more than 30 years have New Zealand recovered from a halftime deficit to beat the Kangaroos.

The first was in 1991 in Melbourne. A Steve Walters try put the Australians ahead at the break before Bob Bailey's team, inspired by Richie Blackmore, Jarrod McCracken, Gary Freeman and the entire forward pack, touched down four times for a 24-8 upset.

The second came six years later at North Harbour Stadium. A depleted New Zealand side — they lost Stephen Kearney before the match and key prop John Lomax was sent to hospital in the second minute — trailed 12-6 after 40 minutes. Richie Barnett broke his hand and McCracken needed stitches for a facial wound. Despite this, a powerful try to Terry Hermansson and brace to Kevin Iro completed a famous win.

The only other time the Kiwis have hauled in the Australians was the 2008 World Cup final. They had done well to stay in the game, down 16-12 at the interval, before three stunning tries in the last quarter.

Every other Kiwis win — and there have been 12 in the past three decades — have come on the back of a strong first half.

Think of Graham Lowe's team at Lang Park in 1983, or the 8-0 halftime lead in the third test of 1985. A Hugh McGahan-inspired side kept the Australians scoreless in the second half in 1987, while a four-try blitz gave the Kiwis a 22-point halftime lead in 1999.

Arguably the most memorable start was the 2005 Tri Nations final at Elland Road. Tries to Manu Vatuvei (two) and Paul Whatuira gave the Kiwis a 16-0 halftime advantage, before a Brent Webb touchdown all but sealed the result.

The pattern has been typical; the Kiwis accelerate away then hang on, as the Kangaroos often produce a strong finish.

"Starts are always important," says Kiwis coach Kearney. "They are important at any level [and] against Australia, they are crucial. Of course we want to take the momentum into halftime and we have done that a few times. But we are also looking at re-wiring that mental blockage — if we are down at halftime, we can come back. That is what needs to change. We can challenge anyone at any time and that is what upsets are about."

Still, New Zealand's best hope is to exert scoreboard pressure — get ahead and stay ahead. At their best, the Kiwis can be great front-runners and hard to stop.

In contrast, Australia often favour a more conservative strategy, not unlike the Melbourne Storm modus operandi. They play a territorial game, force mistakes and accumulate points through weight of possession. They are not used to trailing or being stuck in their own territory for long periods, which can force uncharacteristic mistakes.