The Bulldogs need to beat the Warriors today and hope the Sharks are beaten to finish fifth. If they lose or the Sharks win, they will be sixth.
All eight finalists will play in the first week of the playoffs, with the top-ranked winners earning a week off the following week and the bottom-ranked losers being eliminated. The grand final will be in Sydney on Sunday, October 4.
It's likely the premiership winners will come from the top four, given no team has won the NRL when qualifying fifth or lower.
It will take something special for the Dragons to go deep into the playoffs, and they showed their frailties against the Tigers last night.
They appeared to be cruising but conceded four tries, including two in the last four minutes, to allow the game to go into golden point.
Benji Marshall had a great chance to win it for the Dragons but sliced his drop kick from in front of the sticks.
But team-mate Josh Dugan landed a penalty after Robbie Farah, who was probably playing his last first-grade game for the club after being told he can look for another club, was pinged for offside.