“We all might think we know what is going to happen and I am sure plenty of people would love to think they are on the horse who will lead.
“But the reality is it is not that easy to predict and if you go out there with one plan, you can undo your horse.
“With gate speed, in particular, so much depends on how keen and ready your horse feels and that can change from race to race.
“It is the same for your rivals. I will be checking how the others around me are scoring up and then how they leave the gate but I can’t know whether Don’t Stop Dreaming or Speak The Truth will fly the gate or feel a bit sluggish.
“So I will just react when it happens. What I can control is my prep and if I go for a run, have a sauna and get a good night’s sleep, I’ll be ready to do my best. We will work the rest out later.”
Butcher’s relaxed attitude to the pacing race everybody has been waiting for may frustrate some punters who thrive on bold driver statements to give them confidence but he is also, of course, correct.
While some horses, particularly in Australia, are one-trick ponies who fly the gate at the start of their races, most horses are like most humans in that some days they love their jobs and other days we just turn up and hope nothing bad happens.
The three best chances in tonight’s thriller are Don’t Stop Dreaming, Merlin and Speak The Truth and if any of that trio led without too much fuss, they would be hard to catch.
But if two drivers want the same spot for long enough, they could be undone and then the one from the top trio who stays out of the burn holds the ace.
That could come down to the early energy spend being just 100m too long, especially if it lasts more than the opening 200m and into the first bend, which is always more taxing.
While Butcher is honest enough to admit he doesn’t know what is going to happen, he can rest assured Merlin is ready for the race of his life - if co-trainer Scott Phelan’s words are anything to go by.
“I think the hard runs sitting parked have brought him on and I think he is better than ever,” says Phelan, who trains in partnership with Barry Purdon.
“We never tell Zac what to do but [what] I will be telling him is we think we now have the best horse in the race.”
Tonight is a remarkable turnaround for Purdon and Phelan, who have never had a horse in the Race by Grins but now have three starters, the others being Mach Shard and Sooner The Bettor.
“It is pretty amazing to have three in it, I have never even been to the Race by Grins meeting,” Phelan says with a laugh.
“I’m driving Mach Shard and I will drive him for luck and hope they go hard while Sooner The Bettor’s draw really won’t help him.”
The two other Purdon/Phelan runners are like so many of those outside the big three tomorrow: hoping something crazy happens early and they get the lucky breaks late.
If that does unfold, Self Assured and Better Eclipse are the likely beneficiaries as horses who have been there, done that at the highest level.
But it is hard to see three wonderful horses and their drivers all having an off night so the reality is at the end of the race, the connections of either Don’t Stop Dreaming, Merlin or Speak The Truth will be the ones grinning.
Five plays for the biggest night in Waikato harness racing history
1 The big one: Don’t Stop Dreaming (R9, No 2) has more ways to win this race than his rivals and less ways to lose it. The $2 available is a fair price because if he leads, he should win - and even sitting in the running line, he is the one to beat.
2 The other big one: Callmethebreeze (R6, No 4) isn’t as safe a bet as Just Believe (3) but he is twice the odds so it makes sense. Sensational in front, if unpressured to get there, so he can win leading but he was brilliant running down Just Believe in February in the Great Southern Star, a race not dissimilar to tonight, when he stalked him. Can be mentally fragile but the best win value relevant to winning chance in the race.
3 Downgrading: Wallflower (R3, No 11) has been placing in far hotter fields and while second line draw doesn’t help, will have too much speed for most of her rivals.
4 Risk v reward: Joca’s Hill (R7, No 14): Looks an open class trotter in the making but galloped after 200m last week. The step up to 2700m will help tonight and while he is on a 20m handicap, there are only three on the front line. If he trots all the way, his $5 opening quote will be great money so worth the risk.
5 Early speed: We Walk By Faith (R5, No 6): High-speed pacer who disappointed in NSW Derby but luckless when third in Northern Derby. Can really fly the gate and isn’t qualified for the Sires’ Stakes Final whereas key rival and favourite Cold Chisel is, so may look to work forward and if he leads will be hard to catch.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
