Ohope Wins came from near last to win the New Zealand Oaks in the hands of Joe Doyle. Photo / Kenton Wright
She may be one of the new darlings of New Zealand racing but punters should be careful about backing Ohope Wins to win the New Zealand Derby in two weeks.
The reason being there are a lot more moving parts to her possible participation in the $1.25 million classic at Ellerslie on Champions Day than you may think.
Before we worry about the possible scenarios, the facts.
Ohope Wins came from near last to win the $1m Al Basti Equiworld NZ Oaks at Ellerslie on Saturday for trainers Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott, with Joe Doyle patient for much of the race before beaming for the last 200m.
While staying fillies can often provide false dawns as they beat opponents who will never reach Group 1 heights again, this was not that.
This was an exceptional staying filly beating a good bunch, including her ownership mate Autumn Glory, both having been purchased in recent weeks by racing giant Yulong.
Which is where things start to get interesting.
All things going to plan with Ohope Wins’ health and soundness, if she turned up in the Derby back at Ellerslie on March 7 she would almost certainly win.
That is no disrespect to her Oaks rivals or the boys in the Avondale Guineas earlier on Saturday’s programme, where That’s Gold was imperious with runner-up Road To Paris looking the only other potential Derby winner coming out of that race.
But Ohope Wins is the $1.70 favourite for the Derby after her Oaks demolition job for a reason: if she starts, she should win.
So will she start? Maybe not.
Co-trainer Lance O’Sullivan was saying all the usual honest stuff about the filly having to pull up sound and be all good over the next few days before a decision is made.
But O’Sullivan and Scott are likely to only get one more start with Ohope Wins before she transfers to an Australian trainer, more than likely Chris Waller.
And O’Sullivan said if Ohope Wins starts in the Derby here she probably won’t back up in the ATC Oaks in Sydney on April 11.
Which brings us back to her new owners Yulong.
They are having a whale of a time in New Zealand as they also part-own NZB Kiwi hot favourite Well Written and Autumn Glory.
Being a breeding operation, their main goal with any New Zealand filly is Group 1 black-type here and then in Australia, which increases their future broodmare value.
Ohope Wins has that local Group 1 courtesy of the Oaks and a Derby win isn’t going to boost her broodmare career as much as an ATC Oaks win on Australian soil.
So if Yulong tells O’Sullivan and Scott they can hang on to Ohope Wins until after the Oaks in Sydney, keeping them happy, they could allow her to miss our Derby.
That would provide their other staying filly, Autumn Glory, with her best chance of getting a Group 1 in the Derby.
So rather than having two fillies trying to win the NZ Derby, Yulong could split them and give themselves a shot at winning both classics and securing two more Group 1s in the process.
Which is pretty much how the complex world of big-time owning and breeding works and while Autumn Glory would need to have a late entry fee paid to get into the Derby that won’t factor into Yulong’s thinking.
And there is a little insurance sweetener for Yulong if they decide to bypass the Derby with Ohope Wins and Autumn Glory is trumped by our most consistent male galloper in That’s Gold, who is doing wonderful things for trainer Chris Wood.
Because That’s Gold is by stallion Lucky Vega, who stands at Yulong in Victoria, so that wouldn’t be a disaster for their business.
What does this all mean for punters? It means don’t be taking the $1.70 for Ohope Wins to win the Derby. Not yet anyway.
But if you, like so many racing fans, have fallen in love with Ohope Wins your best chance of backing her to win another race this season may be the $3 in the ATC Oaks.
How this game of chess plays out will become more apparent in the next few days.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.