Lara Anitpova is unbeaten and looks a multi bet anchor at Ellerslie today. Photo / Peter Rubery
About the only thing superstar filly Well Written can’t do at Ellerslie today is make you a lot of money.
The unbeaten filly is the red-hot favourite for the $4 million NZB Kiwi, paying $1.20 to win and with not much chance of a drift, reaffirming one of racing’s great conundrums: the greater the horse, the smaller the dividend.
But with seven black-type races back-to-back there are plenty of smart bets, especially as the end of the summer racing season means the formlines and pecking orders are established.
So here is how you should, responsibly, tackle the hottest races on Champions Day:
Race 3, Al Basti Equiworld Classic: This is set up perfectly for Tomadachi as she drops back from three consecutive Group 1 races, where she performed well but none have earned her extra weight for this.
Quintessa is a proven Group 1 winner at Ellerslie and the obvious danger, then there are the Chris Waller-trained Mare Of Mt Buller, Chica Mojito and Mary Shan, although this may be short of the latter’s best this deep into campaign.
Suggested bet: Tomodachi (3) to win.
Race 4, Haunui Farm King’s Plate: Comes down to one thing, if Alabama Lass races to her best she should lead and win.
Smashed them in this race last year and her recent trial and track work suggest she can repeat but her topsy-turvy season will put some punters off taking the $2.40.
If she doesn’t win then Sweynesday is clearly the next best chance ahead of Platinum Attack, whose value is suited by the small field, and mystery Aussie galloper Cote Atlantique.
Suggested bet: Sweynesday (4) top two at $1.85, probably can’t miss and should build the TAB account for later.
Race 5, Sistema Stakes: Lara Antipova looks a good filly and while she hasn’t raced at Ellerslie, neither has second favourite Justin Case. Te Encuentro and Liguria are talents but can they run past Lara?
Suggested bet: Lara Antipova (5) as your multi anchor for the day.
Race 6, Bonecrusher NZ Stakes: So far it is one-all between the favourites Kingswood and Legarto in our two big weight-for-races of the summer, so this is something of a decider.
The chat around Legarto’s track work suggests she can end her career on a high and, with her good draw and Opie Bosson, she is the top pick.
But Kingswood is a warrior, Pier was huge last start and Jaarffi finally looks all grown up, so at least four relatively even winning chances, while Waitak has the talent but wears a question mark over his head.
Suggested bet: Legarto (7) makes a good early fixed bet as she is likely to tighten closer to race start.
Race 7, Trackside Auckland Cup: Let’s start with the bad news, incredibly hard to predict as many here are out of form or have been waiting for this 3200m.
You could make a case for more than half the field but the golden rule of major staying races is don’t back horses carrying too much weight.
The good news is if you back the winner you will get well paid and if you get the first four take the rest of March off.
Suggested bet: The banana skin race of the day but Final Return (5) has won two big cups here this summer so his 54.5kg is a luxury and he is paying $11.
But take your pick from Trav, Just Charlie, Manzor Blue, Interpretation or Brayden Star. Good luck.
Race 8, HKJC World Pool NZ Derby: The traditional lead-up races have thrown up three obvious chances, That’s Gold, Autumn Glory and Road To Paris, and the winner will probably come from them.
Autumn Glory has a touch of class but could get back and need luck in a race with the potential for traffic. Road To Paris has some steering issues but looks a Derby horse so can win if he runs straight.
But That’s Gold, while not bred to win the Derby, should settle in front of his main rivals and could get a suitable moderate tempo.
Suggested bet: That’s Gold (1) good each-way value or just back him and Autumn Glow to win.
Race 9, NZB Kiwi: Well Written should win for about every reason you can think of but you probably don’t want to take $1.20 unless you’re using her to spice up your multi bet.
Or just like yelling for good horses and telling people you backed a winner.
Belle Cheval gets back, which is often not ideal when a dominant favourite is drawn to be handy, and while He Who Dares is drawn wide he might put a lot of rivals behind him in the first 300m.
Suggested bet: Well Written (3) if you want a multi win, He Who Dares (8) your best place play at $3.60.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.