Weighty issue could ruin Twain’s story as he steps into big time

Twain is a very good horse facing a big step up in class on Saturday. Photo / Kenton Wright.

Twain finds himself in the almost perfect race at Te Rapa on Saturday.

But it is the “almost’ part of the $150,000 Waikato Stud Foxbridge Plate that concerns trainer John Bell.

Twain is the pre-draw second favourite for the first Group 2 of the season and ticks most of the boxes.

He is race fit while most of the big names in the 1200m are not and he has an exceptional record on heavy tracks, winning five of his six starts in the mud and being a luckless second in the other.

Twain has thrilled Bell with his work in the last two weeks, he has a big race rider in Vinnie Colgan and has won twice at Te Rapa.

So what could possibly be the problem?

Weight. Not Twain’s actual weight but the weight he has to carry.

Because the Foxbridge Plate is weight-for-age Twain will carry the same weight as Sacred Satono and former Horse of the Year Sharp N Smart.

If Saturday’s race was a handicap Twain would be getting 6kgs from Sacred Satono and 5kgs from Sharp N Smart.

So while he may race like a weight-for-age quality horse, for a galloper who has never won a race worth more than $55,000 ... the big fella isn’t, by the numbers, well off come this Saturday.

“That is the thing that worries me,” Bell told the Herald.

“In a normal race he could be getting a lot of weight off those horses so the question is whether the things that are in our favour can balance that out?

“He is a big strong horse so maybe it won’t worry him but yes, he would be better placed in a handicap.”

Race fitness could help negate any perceived handicapping disadvantages and it is hard to tell where Twain’s ceiling is, with Bell even nominating him for the Group 1 Proisir Plate at Ellerslie on September 6 in case his arrival in the big time becomes official this Saturday.

“I mean what else can you do? Once they get this high up in the grades and are doing things so well they have to aim at these races or the big sprints in summer which aren’t going to be any easier.”

The weight-for-age scale up and downs goes both ways as well, with Twain having conceded Midnight Scandal 3.5kgs when she beat him by a head at Te Rapa last start but having to give her only 2kgs this Saturday.

“Things didn’t work out ideally in that race,” explains Bell.

“The horse outside us got stirred up and then so did he [Twain] and Vinnie had to go earlier than he probably wanted and was left in front.

“He only got run down late and it took a bit out of him. He was tired the next day, but he bounced back really well and he is spot on for this week.”

The bookies have Twain the $3.50 second favourite before the final field is declared 10.30am on Wednesday, with Sacred Satono at $3.20 after looking forward when third behind Alabama Lass in a recent trial.

Easter Handicap winner Doctor Askar sits on the third line of favouritism after trialling well twice at Foxton for trainer Joanne Moss.

Bell also has Cleese in Saturday’s Open 2100m and rates the veteran an each way chance as he gets back to a more suitable distance.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.