Wallis warning: Stablemates real threat to favourite Belle Neige

Even a 20m handicap may not be enough to stop Merlin winning at Alexandra Park tonight. Photo/Ajay Berry

The trainer who could dominate tonight’s Group 1 Trot at Alexandra Park has a surprise for punters.

Because Michelle Wallis says the pecking order for the four reps she and husband Bernie Hackett take to the $100,000 TAB Queen of Diamonds may have changed in the past week, even if the bookies don’t think so.

The couple are nearing the end of a hugely successful season and could put an exclamation mark on it tonight with Belle Neige, American Muscle, Faith In Manchester and Courmayeur in the 2200m mobile, all with realistic winning chances.

Belle Neige has been set for tonight’s race for months and not only looked spot on with a big last-start third but has secured barrier 1 and has the gate speed to use it.

“She is going well and we know she has gate speed because she has led from barrier 8 before,” says Wallis.

“I wouldn’t like to see her burn really hard but Crystal knows how to drive her and she should be really hard to beat.”

So with all those ticks in the right boxes, how come Wallis isn’t oozing confidence with Belle Neige?

“I actually think there isn’t much between the four of ours. And after the way she won last Friday, maybe American Muscle is actually our best chance.

“She has kept getting better and was very good last week. She has a good record in these type of races and she is likely to be on the speed.

“Faith In Manchester is proven in these races too, even though I was a bit disappointed by her third last Friday, while Courmayeur might actually be the most talented of the four but also the one who needs the most favours.

“So I know Belle Neige is the most logical one of ours but I am not sure American Muscle might end up being the best hope.”

Belle Neige does have that inside draw advantage, though, and three of the stablemates being on the front line could lend itself to Belle Neige leading and then handing that role to either American Muscle or Faith In Manchester.

Not only would that give her the trail and passing lane but also potentially put second favourite Walkinonsunshine three back on the markers.

What should punters make of all that? If you going to back Belle Neige, maybe cover on American Muscle at $6.50.

Tonight’s $100,000 Woodlands Queen Of Hearts for the pacers has a similar tactical feel as Arafura (No.1) and Captains Mistress (No.2) are high class fillies but likely to be followed out at the start by really good mares in Esmeralda and Francent.

Any of the four could win with tempo and the early speed map crucial, but like with Belle Neige in the trot, Arafura may end up being the one who needs luck the least.

“She was still pretty good last week and the extra distance will suit her but Francent was very impressive and it goes to show how hard those older mares can be to beat,” says Arafura’s driver Tony Herlihy.

Two of tonight’s other features will see the favourites undoubtedly having to come from off the speed as Oscar Bonavena and Mighty Logan face 20m handicap in the main trot and Merlin and Akuta the same starting point in the $60,000 Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup.

Mighty Logan’s opening price of $3.50 was too long compared with Oscar’s $1.80, especially if Mighty Logan can step well and get in front of his key rival.

But Merlin deserves his $1.75 quote in the Pacing Cup as he is the best horse on spring form, with tempo his biggest concerns in a small field.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.