But of all the decisions still to be made around this 3-year-old crop the one the team behind Savaglee make this Saturday morning could have the greatest impact.
Our best 3-year-old jogged to victory in the Levin Classic at Trentham last Saturday and if he starts in the $1.5 million Karaka Million Three-Year-Old on Saturday week he will probably win that too.
But his connections are still leaning slightly toward the Group 1 path of the BCD Sprint at Te Rapa on February 8 then into the Australian Guineas at Flemington on March 1 and bypassing Ellerslie.
That could effectively mean giving away the $795,750 first prize in the Karaka Million Three-Year-Old but managing owner Rick Williams of The Oaks Stud said that is still likely.
“Of course we’d love to win the Karaka Millions race as well but we have been very clear this whole campaign is about getting at least one more Group 1, with an Australian Group 1 the ultimate aim.
“He could technically do all three races but we ideally don’t want to go 1600m at Ellerslie into a tough 1400m at Te Rapa and then back to 1600m at Flemington.
“The final decision hasn’t been made and won’t until this Saturday morning.
“Pam [Gerard, trainer] has done everything right by the horse so far and she intends giving him a gallop on Saturday and then we will have a chat.
“We will be as transparent as possible as that is only fair on the punters so we will be on the radio and television, if needed, to tell people on Saturday morning whether he is starting at Ellerslie or not.”
Savaglee is the $2 favourite for the KM3 but if he is not going to start then he won’t be in the nominations next Tuesday and therefore TAB futures bets on him would be refunded.
The Savaglee decision will not only have a huge impact on the final market for the KM3 but also on the mindset of rival connections, who will have fingers crossed he doesn’t turn up at Ellerslie.
If he does head straight to Te Rapa he is second favourite for the BCD Sprint at $3.80, with last-start Telegraph winner Grail Seeker the $2.20 favourite for that 1400m Group 1.
The BCD market has had its own little twist added yesterday when Australian-trained galloper Here To Shock, a last-start winner of the A$1 million Supernova at Pakenham, was added after being requested by at least one punter.
Meanwhile, another Australian galloper far more certain to start here is Interpretation, who has opened the $3 favourite for Saturday’s $400,000 Wellington Cup at Trentham.
The Ciaron Maher-trained stayer will be ridden by Luke Currie and is a rare three-time starter in the Melbourne Cup but has to carry the 59kg top weight on Saturday.
Northern thoroughbred action this week is a day later than normal, with Te Rapa on today and Pukekohe on Sunday instead of Saturday to allow northern jockeys to ride at the Wellington Cup meeting.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s racing editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
