KEY POINTS:
Ask John Sargent how he sees Red Ruler's chances in tomorrow's $700,000 Mercedes Derby at Ellerslie and he cries: "The weather, the weather."
That simple quote covers how the Matamata trainer sees Red Ruler's chances and also what Sargent considers the main danger to Red Ruler.
Sargent is
smart enough to know you need luck to win any race, let alone a Derby.
But so confident is he that Red Ruler has the sheer ability to win the ultimate classic, he considers rain his biggest threat.
Having the $3 favourite in a Derby that could be decimated by rain is why trainers end up with grey hair.
And rain, even heavy falls, is forecast for Auckland and much of the North Island tomorrow.
Plenty will depend on when it arrives and its depth.
Sargent doesn't know for sure that Red Ruler will be hopeless on a badly rain-affected track, but he suspects it and would very much like to find out on any other day but this one.
"He's such a big, long strider that I can't imagine he'd like bad conditions.
"He might get away with a dead track, but slow or heavy would be a real concern."
Outside of the possible wet footing Sargent couldn't be happier with the horse that should be going into the Derby unbeaten.
Only exceptional horses can keep delivering when asked to progressively step up and Red Ruler has in his relatively short career.
In fact, Red Ruler has looked better each time produced - his Championship Stakes victory last start at his first race right-handed and first past 1600m, was simply stunning.
"He's spot on for this race," said Sargent.
"He's had a trouble-free preparation."
Rain will not worry Il Divo, Sargent's second runner.
IL Divo disappointed when only sixth in the Championship Stakes, but he is better than that, as he showed when being beaten only a short neck by the Derby second favourite Nom Du Jeu in the Waikato Guineas two starts back.
"He's doing really well and I've changed a couple of things around with him," said Sargent.
Mission Critical is the TAB's third favourite, a position he justifies after beating Sir Slick and a field of older horses in the group one Whakanui Stud International at Re Rapa last start.
Apart from physical improvement, Mission Critical has shown he has matured mentally at the right time, the Whakanui victory being proof of that.
He jumped the crossing near the 1600m starting point in his last Ellerslie race, but was much better travelling over it when taken to Ellerslie for Tuesday's organised gallops.
Mission Critical looked lean immediately after beating Sir Slick at Te Rapa, something that is not a concern for co-trainer Paul Moroney.
"He races well looking a bit trim. To race at his top he pretty much has to look like that. But his appearance and blood picture are both spot on."
The Moroney stable also has the filly Sing Song Girl engaged and Mission Critical's raceday rider Michael Coleman was impressed when he galloped both horses yesterday morning.
"Michael gave both horses a big thumbs up after the gallop," said Moroney.
WEATHER PUZZLE
* Rain is predicted to disrupt tomorrow's Derby Day at Ellerslie.
* One of those likely to be affected is the $3 Derby favourite Red Ruler.
* The stylish 3-year-old is untried on rain-affected footing, but trainer John Sargent is sure Red Ruler will not be suited by an "off" track.