KEY POINTS:
You need to put a filter on what Dermot Weld tells you
That's no disrespect to the wily Irish horse trainer, but his innate charm covers almost all of what he reveals.
Weld has twice done what every other trainer in the world wants to do - win
a Melbourne Cup.
And he's back in town looking for his third with Profound Beauty in the world's second-richest turf race, at Flemington this afternoon.
Weld says it might be a year too soon for Profound Beauty and that he has concerns about the mare's qualifications to run out a hard 3200m.
But the money trail tells a different story.
The lightly-raced mare has been backed from $17 into $9 in two days.
Weld is more aware than anyone what type of horse is required to win a Melbourne Cup.
And plausible as he is, Weld isn't going to convince anyone that he's spent A$120,000 of his owner's money to get to Melbourne with a horse that won't run the distance.
There's more chance of a white Christmas in Melbourne.
And he's probably had a word in the ear of his Australian jockey Glen Boss, because Boss declared at the press conference on Sunday that Profound Beauty feels to him like a 2400m horse.
If that's the case, the oil tanker full of money that has swept Profound Beauty into the well-fancied end of the betting market since last Friday has already been slaughtered.
That's unlikely.
Profound Beauty looks in magnificent order and her trackwork at Sandown has been sparkling.
Her win in the Challenge Stakes at Leopardstown in mid-July was stunning. The turn of foot she showed to break away at the 300m irresistible.
It was the race that sowed the first seed of the Melbourne Cup in Weld's mind.
"That was the race that impressed me," he said yesterday.
"It's probably a year too soon for her, but you take what you can get and her weight was encouraging. She was entitled to take her chance.
"I'm very happy with her. She's a good filly and I expect her to run a good race."
The astuteness of Weld and his main rival Luca Cumani, trainer of favourite Mad Rush, is leading to Australian jockeys pondering how they will beat the European raiders.
In the boot-to-boot tight riding of a Melbourne Cup, there is no substitute for experience.
The three Irish jockeys riding the Coolmore horses prepared by Aidan O'Brien, Johnny Murtagh, Colm O'Donoghue and Wayne Lardon have no Melbourne Cup experience and only one Australian ride between them - Murtagh's near-last finish on Tears I Cry on Saturday.
Although it's not a given, there is potential for that to prove costly.
A big part of the thrill that Weld will receive if Profound Beauty gets over the line will be that Glen Boss is in the saddle.
He remembers with horror the moment when Boss and the great mare Makybe Diva sailed past the Weld-trained Vinnie Roe in the home straight a handful of years ago.
"Vinnie Roe is the best horse I've brought to Melbourne and I thought he'd win that year. In fact, I couldn't see him beaten.
"I thought he had the race won ... then along came Glen.
"We know now what a wonderful mare [Makybe Diva] was.
"But I'm pleased to have Glen on side this time."
Boss has been impressed on the couple of occasions he's gone out to Sandown to ride Profound Beauty in the long, steady work favoured by European trainers.
"She's a lovely big, strong mare - probably in excess of 500kg.
"She has a very efficient action. Her work last Friday was very strong - quite brilliant.
"I wouldn't swap the ride for anything else."
