It won't erase the mortgage, but the short price about smart Cambridge juvenile Lion Tamer in the opener at Trentham today could significantly increase your bank for the day.
Even if Lion Tamer dips slightly into odds-on (less than $2), he's probably still going to be value.
This is a
serious racehorse and even if he's a juvenile already looking to be a 3-year-old, he's nice and fresh and should sprint a very good 1200m in that state.
You need only to remember what he did to a red hot field on debut at Pukekohe in November to believe he can cope with his five opponents today. Miss Marauder (No3) could be a touch of value for the quinella and trifecta. She looked good winning at Awapuni and was then hampered by an outside gate in the Karaka Million.
The fact Trentham had an official dead reading on Thursday is enough to believe the footing will be a little forgiving today and that's going to greatly suit St Germaine (No3, R2). The Matamata filly has been racing in better company than most of her opposition today and with her ability to find the line strongly she should be able to get home. Time Keeper (No4) is coming off the 2400m of the Derby, but he has natural speed and he fights hard, which should promote him into this finish.
Kovak (No3, R4) has at times been underrated. He turned in a nice fourth over a too-short 1100m when resuming from a spell on his home track at New Plymouth last start and the step to 1400m here is ideal. Pinzee (No7) has not had a great deal of luck in her last two runs.
Difficult to see the Thompson Handicap as any other way but Wall Street (No2, R5). There is little doubt the electric pace set by eventual winner Mufhasa brought Wall Street undone when he sat wide in the group; one at Otaki last start. His overall form is outstanding and something would have to be amiss for him not to take home the money here. The quinella result isn't quite so easy. One worth considering, even though he's risen through the grades almost too quickly, is All In Tempo (No11). He came from a clear last on that fast Mufhasa speed to finish fifth at Otaki, which was an eye-catching run. He looks to have a future.
Northerners Backup (No1, R6) and Mr Charlie (No5) are going to be hard to contain in the St Leger. Backup scored a gutsy all-the-way win in the St Leger Trial at Otaki then wasn't disgraced in finishing eighth in Zavite's Auckland Cup. This is a whole lot easier than that. Even though he finished second, Mr Charlie looked slightly off his game at Ellerslie last start. The track was very firm that day and he seems to prefer a bit of bite in the track which, hopefully, he will find this time.
He's racing way out of his class for a one-win horse, but Connacht (No14) has been one of the unluckiest horses racing and he is worth putting on your trifecta tickets.
This column can't find a reason to drop Zarzuela (No1, R8) in the Oaks. She's looked as good as any of the 3-year-olds on several occasions and you can simply put her Derby fourth down to it not being her day. All she needs is a firm track. Plenty of chances though in what will be a fabulous contest. A Chance To Dream (No5) has burst onto the scene in what seems no time and her domination of the fillies' race at Ellerslie on Auckland Cup day told you she intends staying there. She is a big hope as are Keep The Peace (No4), Eileen Dubh (No2), Adaline (No3) and November Rain (No6). This is a race not to be missed.
At Te Rapa today you can make a case for several in the opening race, but Fantastic Flash (No1, R1) is going to be difficult to manage. He was just beaten over 1600m at Ellerslie last week and will be much more competitive over 2100m here on a track he produced a very good second on three starts back.
Shi Kin Fly (No2, R3) can back up after her Matamata win and be very tough to bowl again. She stays in the same class and now looks capable of fulfilling her earlier promise.
From a good barrier draw for a change Amazing Kelly (No1, R4) should go close. It took a good effort to run him down on this track last start and he deserves a turn. Handsome Mates (No4) looked good on debut. He hasn't drawn quite so well, but the 1600m at Te Rapa provides plenty of opportunity to get across into a good position early.
Yes, Culminate (No1, R7) is a class above most she meets in the 1400m today, but she is prepping for the group one Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha and there always has to be doubt about a horse in a race which is not its grand final.
She might well win today, but for value it might be better to pick one whose place price might be better than Culminate's win dividend. One possibility could be Heat Haze (No6) who, although a stayer, is running fresh. She can really finish off and the small field will help.
Khemosabi (No5, R10) has been unlucky enough to draw the outside gate in the last.
If Paul Duncan decides to run him he could still be worth supporting. He is extra good and should be in for a big autumn.
It won't erase the mortgage, but the short price about smart Cambridge juvenile Lion Tamer in the opener at Trentham today could significantly increase your bank for the day.
Even if Lion Tamer dips slightly into odds-on (less than $2), he's probably still going to be value.
This is a
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