KEY POINTS:
The TAB perhaps took a bit of a punt opening Sir Slick up at $4.40 and Tell A Tale at $3.20 for tomorrow's $200,000 Whakanui Stud Stakes.
Fixed odds betting does not always reflect the relative chances anticipated by those laying the odds - it's often as much
about expected volumes of betting.
In other words, balancing the books.
So, given Sir Slick is the public's horse and one people just like backing, the $4.40 can be expected to be chipped away substantially.
Head TAB bookie Thad Taylor is aware of all those factors and is happy to have Tell A Tale at $3.20.
"We think Tell A Tale is the horse to beat this time.
"We're expecting Sir Slick to be well backed, but were happy to offer the $4.40 at this point.
"We anticipate he'll start shorter than that."
Tell A Tale has been beaten favourite in his last two starts. He was fourth, only one length away, in Gallions Reach's group one Zabeel Classic then got back and made good ground into fourth behind Mill Duckie in the 3-year-old race at Ellerslie two weeks ago.
That race was a handicap and he carried 57.5kg, giving weight to the field.This time he drops to 54kg and has the luxury of attacking the older horses from a low position in the weights.
Traditionally top class 3-year-olds have a wonderful record in these sorts of races. Trainer Mark Walker always believed there would be improvement coming out of the Ellerslie 3-year-old race and says he's seen what he expected.
"His work this week has been excellent," he said.
Remarkable is the only word to describe Sir Slick.
Much has been made of him being beaten in the Bairnsdale Cup in Victoria and coming back to New Zealand within weeks and winning the group one Thorndon Mile.
You can't rationalise that.
Sufficient to say Sir Slick is back to his best and, equally remarkable, he looked in great order at Trentham.
The key here is the tempo he sets up in front. Rider David Walsh is probably New Zealand's best front-running jockey and he'll be looking to totally dictate to the opposition.
Mark Walker knows that's his biggest danger with Tell A Tale.
"If he gets away with a soft lead, we can forget about it. They won't pick him up."
Veloce Bella went a huge race to be narrowly beaten into third in lesser company on the first day after losing at least eight lengths out of the starting gates.