Racing: Weather set to play a major role in Tarzino Trophy

Dragon Leap's co-trainer Andrew Scott believes his charge will operate well on anything up to a slow7 track, but won't start in heavy conditions. Photo / Supplied

The form guide could be replaced by the weather report as the most crucial pointer to the first Group 1 of the season at Hastings on Saturday.

The biggest influence on the market and even the outcome of the $220,000 Tarzino Trophy feature race could be how much rain the track cops before Saturday afternoon.

The forecast rain for the region has already enormously impacted the 1400m feature with Catalyst not even accepting for the final field after trainer Tony Pike's intel from local Hawke's Bay farmers was to expect enough rain for ensure a slow track on Saturday.

"I didn't want to start him on a slow track so we will wait for the open 1300m on the second day," said Pike.

That meant the second favourite was gone before acceptances.

Although it still leaves a strong field headed by Avantage and defending champion Callsign Mav, the Tarzino also has a few horses using it as a launching point to longer races later in the spring, some winter wet trackers and comeback star Dragon Leap.

Dragon Leap is indicative of others in the race in that his connections would love the forecast to be wrong and the track present with a rating of 5 or 6, rather than getting to a slow8.

"He will be starting unless it gets heavy because we need to get the show back on the road," said Dragon Leap's co-trainer Andrew Scott.

"We think he will operate okay on anything up to a slow7 but after that it would be a big test for him."

So can Dragon Leap win a Group1 fresh-up for a year?

"Your guess is as good as ours," Scott said with a shrug.

That is hardly going to inspire anybody to take the $5.50 on offer with the TAB in a market that could change depending how much rain falls before Saturday's 4.25pm start.

One certainty is that Avantage will start favourite, with the weather unlikely to affect her as much as others, another reason for her $3 opening quote even after a last-start shocker.

Hawke's Bay hero Callsign Mav's chances would seem to improve with every step closer to a good track but trainer John Bary wasn't holding out great hope of that. "We are forecasting a fair bit of rain the next two days so I think we will all know a lot more by Friday," he said.

Most of those in the field have at least some slow track form should the surface end up that way, but another factor by Tarzino time could be how much the track cuts up.

The first day of any major carnival, with the rail back in its true position, will tend to favour those racing handy and on the inside if the track is good.

But if that same track is rated slow and had plenty of hooves pound into it throughout the day, the inside and low draws may not be as much fun later in the day, when the Tarzino will be run.

Factoring in all of those elements punters would be wise to wait, maybe even until raceday, before betting into the first Group 1 of the season.

It is the highlight on a superb day that will also see Imperatriz in the Gold Trail Stakes, I Wish I Win and the unbeaten Turn The Ace in the Sir Colin Meads Trophy, NZ Oaks placegetter Llanacord returning from a successful Adelaide campaign in the last race of the day, and a brutally strong rating 74 over 1200m.

Further afield, Probabeel looks to have drawn ideally at barrier two for the A$1 million Sir Rupert Clarke at Caulfield on Saturday, with the speed in the race drawn around her.

Probabeel's stablemate and NZ Oaks winner Amarelinha resumes over 1400m at Randwick in Sydney from a handy barrier.