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About midday yesterday the Auckland weather forecast changed from a few showers later today to: "Afternoon rain, heavy thundery falls".
Excuse the pun, but that is going to rain on the parade of the Tony Pike/Mark Donoghue stable which in today's Ellerslie feature races has probably the strongest team ever assembled for this raceday.
After 31mm of rain Saturday and Sunday the Ellerslie track was yesterday rated a dead (5).
"That will probably come back to a dead (4) by tomorrow morning," said Auckland Racing Club racing manager Andrew Castles.
With the meeting beginning at 1pm and a last race at 7pm, rain would have the potential to downgrade the footing quickly.
Pike has leading chances right across the feature races, seven runners in total and says he's worried about only two of them.
Unfortunately for the stable and for punters they are both towards the end of the day, Waterford, hot favourite for the $200,000 Sistema Railway Stakes and More Than Sacred, equally favoured in the $100,000 Scot Thrust City Of Auckland Cup.
"Perhaps Waterford is not a total duffer on an 'off' track, but it's not ideal. It blunts her turn of foot and it will be a bit of an issue," said Pike.
"But More Than Sacred doesn't handle the wet at all. She's certainly the worst of those two and the one I'm worried about."
Like all horse trainers need to become, Pike is philosophical.
"We'll just have to show up, sit around and hope."
Castles is the wrong person to ask about the weather forecast right now.
"This forecast has changed three times that I know of for tomorrow. If these blokes can't get it right as paid forecasters, what show have we got?"
Pike's other runners, in order of appearance, are: Last-start winner Bellbird in Race 3, the special conditions 1400; debut-winning juvenile Vinnie Eagle in the Eclipse Stakes, Royal Dominance for the Royal Stakes and Sacred Star and Chintz in the Rich Hill Mile.
"I don't expect any of them to have a problem if it rains."
Punters seeking a winner should look closely at excitement machine Show The World, who despite being beaten last start, is in for a mixed afternoon.
He is going to be greatly aided by the introduction of blinkers in the $100,000 The Sound Championship Stakes, but possibly hampered if the rain arrives.
Show The World looked badly in need of blinkers when surprisingly beaten into second place in the prelude to this race and that has been rectified for today.
However, he is by High Chaparral, who has not left a great list of horses who can handle rain-affected footing.
This race is relatively early at 3.40pm, so he may get away with it. On a decent surface he should win.
Any rain would suit Lion Red in the $75,000 Dunstan Feeds Championship Final. That was a good third he produced behind Etoile Filante on Boxing Day. She is going to be the one to beat again even though Lion Red meets her 2kg better this time. Kendoka is also right in this race.
Tony Pike is confident his pair Sacred Star and Chintz will be difficult to contain in the $100,000 Rich Hill Mile regardless of conditions. Diamede and Jubilate look dangers.