Racing: Wahid factor makes an especially interesting Derby

The massive betting pool in the Derby today is what you need to aim for.

It means bigger dividends because the range of fancies is wide and the big field will result in double value if you are lucky enough to snag the trifecta.

Whether he wins or not, Wahid is the key to the race.

You can make a strong case for him as he is the classiest of this year's 3-year-olds, his lead-up form is superb, not a horse has passed him in his last three starts, and it's difficult to imagine him missing one of the three trifecta spots.

If that happens, a lot of people will be out of the trifecta calculation.

Derbies are fascinating races and this one is especially so because of the Wahid factor. Will he be forced to lead again? Will he be attacked in the lead, and if so, will he see out the 2400m.

My experience with Derbies is that class counts for just about everything but the worst of bad luck. Whether Wahid runs out 2400m as an older horse I believe he will today against his own age and therefore the predominant question coming out is whether he's good enough. That answer can only be yes. He has proved it in each of his last two starts with all-the-way wins in the Waikato Guineas and Championship Stakes.

Ideally, Wahid will get a spot, one off the rails in the first half dozen, but if he has to lead don't panic unless something comes charging around determined to make him work hard. For $600,000 that would be a nonsense, but it's not impossible.

Wahid to win and the rest of the trifecta placings is difficult.

First you have the question of just how good Congrats is. He's never been tested so how can you judge. When he walked to the line to win at Te Rapa two starts back it was probably the easiest win we have seen outside maiden class in 12 months.

He is the definite danger and if you want to put one more in to win in your trifecta, he's it.

Black Panther is a must. The narrow configuration of the Ellerslie track for Championship Stakes day made it tough for him from where he was placed on the home bend. His rider, Grant Cooksley, needs to make up for some bad Derby luck with Mount Street and Cheval De Troy. Over the 2400m he can afford to allow Black Panther to relax wherever he is comfortable and the horse's stamina will take him into the race at the right time.

Abbey Drive and Charliehorse are the next two. There is a niggle in both - Abbey Drive needs to settle to see out the 2400m and Charliehorse needs to run straight at the winning post from the home bend instead of towards the crowd, which has been his want.

Wahid and Congrats to win with the other three for the placings. The best value will be Gallions Reach.

All of that is assuming the showers do not ease the track.

If they do, Final Reality and Twinkling are right in the race.

Beersheba Knight (No5, R1) has had a bit of a break from racing and that should suit him coming into a R76 race. The small field is another help and who is riding better than Jason Waddell at the moment? A good each-way start to the carnival.

The Nathans Memorial could be a trap race, but it's difficult to see Kind Return (No6, R2) missing the money. Play your trifectas around her and you should not be far wrong.

Temple Hills (No3, R5) and Thats Tops (No5) stand out. The 2kg Chad Ormsby takes off Temple Hills might prove to be the key. He is a horse of potential and is the type to race well when fresh. Thats Tops likes a bit of give in the footing and the more of that there is the more you would have to like her chances.

Gee I Jane (No5, R7) is going to start a warm favourite in an interesting weight-for-age 1200m, a type of race we rarely see. She is a big strong mare well up to carrying weight-for-age. She is coming back from 1400m to 1200m, but Neville Couchman will have made plans for that and who can forget her terrific third to Kristov and Darci Brahma at Te Rapa last start. She deserves to be the top tip, but Lance O'Sullivan has a huge hand in the race with Tsarina Belle (No11) and Crepe De Chine (No9). Both will race well while fresh, the only downside to Crepe De Chine is her wide barrier, but she has blistering speed and could overcome it in the first 200m.

O'Sullivan declared in yesterday's Herald that Momento (No1, R8) would be his one bet for the carnival if he was pressed to nominate it. He wasn't sure he would run him here or the last day, but if he takes his place this afternoon, it might pay to be with the Matamata trainer. You are hard to please if you didn't like the Te Rapa win of Sphenophyta (No7). This is harder, but put him in all multiples.

The last is an interesting and useful field. With the remarkable Johnny Cash movie creaming it at the box offices, each-way on Ring OF Fire (No9, R10) could be the way to go. Be on him and stay on side.