"I don't think anyone wants a heavy track, but I won't mind if it gets too slow; he should handle it."
Vespa's recent stylish winning form has been at 1400m in fast time. He has once tried this 1600m distance and his unplaced run, in the Carbine Club Stakes at the Melbourne Cup Carnival, can be forgotten.
The Gai Waterhouse-trained guaranteed pacemaker that day was scratched at the barrier and Vespa ended in front. If you are going to try 1600m for the first time Flemington at carnival time wearing blinkers and being left in front is not the perfect occasion.
Vespa's great asset is his 52kg, which gives him a fighting chance to get through the conditions if they become tough. The No 1 barrier would not normally be ideal late on a major raceday if the rains came, but Vespa races handy and he should be okay.
Track conditions will determine Kawi's prospects. He is all class and if he gets a decent grip on the track the $7 on offer from the TAB will be generous.
When he comes from a reasonable spot in the field, few horses can hold Kawi out in the closing stages of a race when he really winds up.
Allez Eagle has been in outstanding form through the summer, the only glitch being an unlucky run when a close third two starts back. He has yet to try 1600m, but trainer Tony Pike is not too concerned.
"When he won at Te Aroha last start [1400m] he really ran strongly through the line like 1600m was going to suit him."
Rory Hutchings, who partnered Allez Eagle in many of his wins is unable to make the 53.5kg this time and the ride has gone to Leith Innes.
Under 59kg, Addictive Habit looked good chasing Allez Eagle (53kg) home at Te Aroha and is going to be greatly suited by the step up to 1600m, at which he has won five of his 10 starts. He has 57kg this time, which is not an easy task in an Easter, but he is highly talented.
Might Solomon did not handle Ellerslie at his only right-handed try a little more than a year ago, but it's a fair bet that experience will assist him here.
He is much better placed in this under 55.5kg than when trying to chase Vespa last start carrying 59kg to Vespa's 53kg.
The weight differential this time is nowhere near as severe.
The prospect of showers is good news for the camp of Spellbinder, who has an excellent record in the wet.
She is currently at $12 on Final Field, but will probably shorten on that quote if the track becomes more rain-affected.
Punting pointers
Maybe not finished yet:
Augusta National (No 10, R2 Ellerslie).
Impressive in winning her last two in grade races and steps up to open company this time, but the opposition does not look greatly stronger. Comes in on a light weight.
Deserves this: Sir Andrew (No 11, R8 Ellerslie). Won and lost it in the stewards room last start. Has plenty of ability and will go close.
This time: Light Shadow (No 9, R10 Ellerslie). Has produced enormous finishes for seconds to a couple of smart mares in Fascination Street and Lady Le Fay and deserves a winning turn.
