Racing: Urgently seeking Derby form

You will never see so many horses labelled urgent as in today's $70,000 Avondale Guineas.

If Sky City wanted to sponsor a memorable race they have their wish.

This race will be remembered for a long time for those who, in two minutes today, will win or lose their chance for a crack at the $500,000 Mercedes Derby.

The race for one of the 18 spots in the country's biggest classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day is so intense, even the likes of boom 3-year-old Xcellent is not yet guaranteed a start.

Co-trainer Andrew Scott revealed yesterday that Xcellent will not race again before the Derby.

That makes him vulnerable on two scores - he is currently 13th in order of preference on stakemoney won, but it is possible he could be leapfrogged by two horses in today's Avondale Guineas and three from next Sunday's Bonecrusher Derby Trial at Ellerslie.

The first two home today and the first three next Sunday are exempt from the Derby ballot, which means if all those horses were from the list behind Xcellent, admittedly unlikely, Xcellent would be the last horse into the field.

But he has stakemoney of only $11,500 and if yet another horse behind him in the order of entry were to earn significant money in a race other than in today's Guineas or the Bonecrusher, they could also leapfrog Xcellent.

Xcellent brilliantly won an intermediate class supporting race at Ellerslie last Saturday.

He is significantly immature mentally and another race before the Derby could help in that area, but he is equally immature physically and that extra race could bottom him.

Trainers Mike Moroney and Andrew Scott have been sitting on that knife edge all week.

"We have come to the conclusion we are better off not racing him again," said Andrew Scott.

"If we feel he needs something like a mini trial there is always the option of taking him to Ellerslie for the Breakfast With The Stars on the Tuesday before Boxing Day.

"If we did he could have a bit of a run around, but we won't be making that decision yet."

Scott said Xcellent felt last week's win physically. "He left a bit of feed for a couple of days, but he he's fine now. He's an athletic type and it's not going to take a lot of work to get him right for the 2400m."

The horses remaining in the Derby after yesterday's preliminary acceptance tells a story. Last year 35 remained on the corresponding day - last night there were 62 still left in.

Class act Magnetism was one of those pulled out yesterday. It is understood he will be spelled and aimed at an autumn campaign in Australia.

That allowed St Verdi to come into the shadow field as No 18, but those that are still vulnerable or outside the cut include unbeaten and well-fancied Able Standard, last week's dashing winner Clarissa, King's Cape, Barjou and Willy Smith

Able Standard, Willy Smith and Barjou are engaged this afternoon. If they miss the first two placings, even the stakemoney for third, fourth and fifth could be sufficient to get them into the Derby.

The scenario puts an exciting edge to an already enthralling contest. This time next year the 3-year-old class of 2004/05 will be revered as the best for more than a decade.