This column has more doubts about the rider, Victor Espinoza, than American Pharoah. Espinoza did not cop a lot of flak for his ride last year on California Chrome, but we rated it very ordinary and certainly a contributing factor in the horse finishing fourth.
Although Espinoza got American Pharoah home in the Kentucky Derby, that ride was hardly textbook either. The pair covered so much extra ground the colt had to be the best horse in the field by a fair way to score by one length.
American Pharoah's trainer, Bob Baffert, and Espinoza have had a rocky association. Baffert famously sacked the jockey after he finished second on Congoroc in the 2001 Kentucky Derby, alleging he made his final run much too soon.
Espinoza laughs the association off. "We've always been good together. Sometimes we have to leave it alone for a minute, then come back together and go forward."
Baffert is too smart to burn bridges. "Victor is better now. He's like Gary Stephens and Mike Smith. When they're on a good horse they're going to get you there."
We'll see.
There is an absence of doubt about American Pharoah. South African trainer Mike de Kock, probably the world's best at travelling horses internationally, speaks for most when he says: "We're probably running for second."
So why is it so difficult to win the Triple Crown? One factor is probably the distances: 2000m for the Kentucky Derby, back to 1900m for the Preakness then 2400m for the Belmont. Going back in distance then significantly up in trip is unnatural for horses.
A secondary factor is the Belmont is significantly the third group one race in five weeks. Very few American horses race with that frequency.
Then there is the surfaces - each of the three racetracks used have differing consistencies.
One factor that will probably assist American Pharoah, if he needs it, will be the likelihood of rain. The colt has a remarkably smooth galloping action - "Like a monorail," says de Kock - on a good surface, but very unusually he is even better on a rain-affected track, as he showed in the Preakness.
It was raining when he arrived in New York on Tuesday and rain is forecast for the weekend.
He was flown from Kentucky to Long Island Airport in a specially chartered Boeing 727 the media nicknamed "Air Horse One".
History awaits colt
• Most American fans expect American Pharoah to write his name in the history books on Sunday.
• Top horseman Mike de Kock has already conceded defeat before the Belmont Stakes is run.
• In a further blow for the star's rivals the track is expected to be wet.
