Racing: Tricky draw for Adore Me

Have Faith In Me (right) has picked a really hard race to make his Alexandra Park debut in. Photo / Getty Images

Would-be Queen of Hearts travelling at very short odds

What champion horseman Mark Purdon wants to do and what punters want him to do are probably two different things in tonight's $100,000 Rosslands Queen Of Hearts.

And while his wonder mare Adore Me will almost certainly win anyway, Purdon's tactics are the best indicator of whether you want to load up on the $1.22 the TAB is offering.

Adore Me has got the only tricky draw she could have been handed, one on the second line in the group one 2200m mobile.

As a New Zealand Cup winner who smashed the national mares record for this trip last week she deserves to be rated almost unbeatable, unless Purdon decides to chance his luck at the start and follow through Helena Jet, who Adore Me is drawn directly behind.

The horseman in him, always looking for the best run for his great mare, trying to win without gutting her, suggests that is the way to go.

And with the red hot speeds 2200m mobiles are being run at Alexandra Park these days gaps would seem certain to appear. Adore Me will only need half one.

But following any horse and risking even the smallest danger Adore Me could get locked away on the markers and bring traffic into play might be enough to make $1.22 look not quite such easy money.

What most punters would like is Purdon to snag back, take luck out of play and work forward in the middle stages.

Of course that is a lot harder way to win a race but if you are smashing the $1.22 you don't want luck and traffic being factors. With a massive summer ahead though, Purdon has to balance winning this group one with how brutal he wants to be on Adore Me to do it.

What is the most likely? Purdon punching through and trying to get away from the markers inside the first 400m when the field could be at its most disorganised.

So should you take $1.22? Probably not, those odds should be reserved for almost certain leaders or Black Caviar.

Helena Jet, Lancewood Lizzie, Venus Serena and Willow are all good enough to upset if Adore Me is totally luckless. But you want $10 about any of them to try your luck.

The Purdon-Rasmussen team have some easier targets tonight, with the draws falling their way in the $50,000 Alabar Classic.

Have Faith In Me might be the best horse of their three reps judging by his Sires' Stakes win but he has picked a really hard race to make his Alexandra Park debut in and stablemate Hug The Wind might be better suited.

He has the draw, the first-up winning experience and the all-round manners to gain a tactical advantage over his stablemate in a race where Express Stride looks the danger to their domination.

Their outstanding fillies Linda Lovegrace, Fight For Glory and Classical Art are huge chances in the Peter Breckon Memorial but as good as they are The Orange Agent may be better.

It shapes as the race of the night with field position with a lap to go crucial because The Orange Agent probably can't take the war to the Purdon trio.

Add in Petite One, impressive juvenile trialist Lazarus, Hot Pants, Wanna Play, Paramount Queen, Sluggem and Change Stride and the stable could remarkably go close to their six winners from last Friday.

Premier picks
Best bet: Dalton Bromac (Race 1): Headed for open class. Fast.
Back up: Hug The Wind (Race 3): Has a lot of advantages over his stablemate Have Faith In Me tonight.
Bolter: My Kiwi Mate (Race 11): Has been flying and odds could be better than expected in hot field.