Racing: Top Aussie stayer here to win

Victorian pacer Smoken Up will test the locals at Addington. Photo / Gary Wild

Australian horseman Lance Justice knows today's $750,000 New Zealand Trotting Cup could develop into a classic case of the hare and the tortoise.

And it's not much fun being the tortoise.

"But at least we know how that one ended, I think the tortoise won," said Justice.

He trains Australian pacer Smoken Up, who plays the classic tortoise role - doing all the hard yards, breaking hearts but too often being outgunned by a speedster.

Anybody who has watched open-class pacing in the past two months will know the hare. His name is Stunin Cullen and he is as fast as Smoken Up is brave.

Considering this is a New Zealand Cup down on real class, either the hare, the tortoise or a Monkey (King) should win.

But it is Smoken Up and Stunin Cullen who have the advantages.

Both are good beginners, drawn well and likely to settle handy, where the respect they have earned will make life a lot easier.

In a tactical race, Justice makes no secret of his plans.

"I think everybody knows I want to be in front and try and run the sprint out of them," said the Victorian trainer-driver.

By them, he means Stunin Cullen.

"A few days ago, I was very confident we would win but since then I have read and heard some pretty scary things about Stunin Cullen.

"It makes me realise more and more that I will have to pace our last mile in 1:55 to beat him, which I think I can do."

Justice employed those tactics last season when Smoken Up was still in front 120m from the finish of the Cup but was out kicked into third.

So what has changed?

Well, this year's Cup is weaker for a start. Much weaker.

And last season, Justice went into the race with doubts as Smoken Up had not travelled well.

"He has been here a day longer, travelled better and worked better than last year.

"So I think he will go as good as last year, maybe even better."

If Smoken Up does perform to that level he will be in front again a lap from home and it will take a very good horse to run past him.

Stunin Cullen looks the most likely, and some would say only, rival capable of doing that.

Which is why the start of the race will be absolutely crucial.

Stunin Cullen is typically safe and often fast from a standing start but has drawn the dreaded inside barrier, which means he will come into line first and could be made to wait a long time as the New Zealand Cup start is often a shambles.

If he steps fast enough to lead, Stunin Cullen's driver Anthony Butt can simply wait for Smoken Up, take the trail and almost certainly beat him for speed up the long Addington passing lane.

But if Stunin Cullen gets fractious and misses away even slightly inferior horses could get in front of him, forcing Butt to use him twice, not once.

"I am hoping I can put some horses between me and him," said Justice.

"If he is sitting on us then he might be too fast. If he has to come around other horses then everything changes."

The two scenarios provide punters with plenty of percentage in the market to play with.

If you favour Smoken Up then you should be able to get $5 to $5.50 and easily cover yourself on Stunin Cullen or vice versa, just needing a higher initial spend to make as much off the favourite.

Outside of them Monkey King can win but will need a lot of things to go his way, while Sleepy Tripp, Power Of Tara and Bettor's Strike are the best blowout hopes.

But each-way punters should stick with the tortoise. If he doesn't win it is impossible to see him missing a place.

New Zealand Cup

CUP DAY
What: New Zealand Trotting Cup Day.
Where: Addington, Christchurch.
When: First race 11.50am, Cup at 5.15pm.
Highlights: $750,000 New Zealand Cup; $180,000 Sires' Stakes Final; $80,000 NZ Free-For-All Trot.
Watch: Trackside from 11.30am; TV3 to cover the Cup.
Betting: Final field fixed odds all races, $75,000 Pick6.

NZ CUP TIPS

* Smoken Up
* Stunin Cullen
* Monkey King
* Roughie: Power of Tara.

MICHAEL GUERIN'S PUNTING POINTERS

Best bet
Toledo (R12, No2): Good stayer with gate speed who beat top field last week, pacing same time as Kaikoura Cup winner.

Draw buster
Empyrean (R7, No14): Has been a revelation this season and is good enough to overcome the draw in what should be a hotly run race. Stunning at Ashburton last time.

Best each-way
Smoken Up (R10, No5): Wonderful Aussie pacer almost certain to be in front at the bell. He might get run down but not by many.

One more chance
Ray (R11, No7): Very good at best and needs win here to make the Dominion on Friday. Trainer says he is over his soreness so worth another crack over the 2600m journey.

Ready
Raydon (R6, No13) Finally nearing his best and conditions suit today.

Don't
Bother with Pick6. At just $75,000 on NZ Cup Day it is almost embarrassing.

Do
Play the place totes or at least each-way. Big fields and plenty of form sees some great place dividends.