Silent Achiever. Photo / APN
All the things that went wrong for Silent Achiever in spring have gone exactly right.
If one hour is a long time in horse racing, six months is 43 lifetimes.
The pendulum has turned for Roger James and Silent Achiever and James is praying for just 72 more hours.
It's worth A$2-point-something million in stakemoney and as much again in residuals for Silent Achiever and owner Kevin Hickman if the high-class mare can get across the line first in Saturday's A$4 million ($4.36 million) Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
All the things that went horribly wrong for James and Silent Achiever in their Melbourne Cup bid in the spring have gone exactly right in their attempt for honours in Australia's second-richest race.
Even the barrier draw for Saturday's massive task - Silent Achiever has drawn gate No 7.
"I came here [to the barrier draw function] hoping to draw between six and eight and I got seven," said a delighted James on Tuesday.
James could not be happier with the progress of his outstanding mare.
"She has really switched on with the addition of blinkers without over-reacting.
"She doesn't need a great deal of galloping and this morning's effort was her only piece of work since the BMW," said James after a Tuesday morning workout.
This is a fascinating contest. One of the attention grabbers will be which of the top three, Carlton House, It's A Dundeel or Silent Achiever will cope best with the switch back to 2000m from the 2400m of the BMW.
Although he only just missed in the BMW, Carlton House had previously looked a 2000m specialist. Because of his normally brilliant sprinting finish, It's A Dundeel could be argued to be better suited to 2000m than 2400m.
Silent Achiever does not flinch getting the 2400m and astute rider Nash Rawiller will be well aware he will probably need to be putting the pressure on a fair way out to ensure Carlton House does not get out of Silent Achiever's sights.
This fabulous Championships carnival may have had some of the focus taken away with the death of Nathan Berry, last week's shocking Doncaster Day weather and Chris Waller's Doncaster first-four home, but there will be only one focus when this field heads into the barriers on Saturday afternoon.
The track got to heavy earlier in the week and it is hoped yesterday's clearing conditions will create significant drying.
Even then the best that can be hoped for is a slow surface.
James McDonald and Murray Baker are smiling at the same time.
It's a seriously magnificent sign.
The rider and trainer of It's A Dundeel in Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes have had their share of worries approaching the crown jewel of Sydney's The Championships.
Like It's A Dundeel being unable to win a race. He hasn't been going bad, but he hasn't won one.
The signs were there that things had changed at exactly the right time when James McDonald cracked a massive smile as he walked It's A Dundeel off the Warwick Farm track on Tuesday morning following his final piece of serious work.
Asked by journalists if the smile was significant to It's A Dundeel's chances in what might well be his final raceday appearance on Saturday, McDonald said: "Okay, I've been sprung. I'd make a very ordinary poker player."
Yesterday McDonald told the Herald the Warwick Farm gallop was the first time he'd been confident about the progress of It's A Dundeel since the start of the Sydney campaign. "He feels like a horse that is peaking at exactly the right time. I came away pretty confident."
It's no secret It's A Dundeel has had foot problems off and on in Australia. What is probably very significant is that since It's A Dundeel finished second to Silent Achiever in the BMW at Rosehill, Murray Baker has left off the protective bar shoes the stallion has been wearing and left him in his racing plates.
Bookmakers are almost always the first to hear of good or bad news on horses and not long after the Warwick Farm gallop TAB.com.au dropped It's A Dundeel in from $6 to $5, leaving Carlton House favourite at $3.50 and Silent Achiever second favourite at $4.60.
Managing owner of It's A Dundeel John Messara was delighted with barrier No 1 for the stallion, but there is potential for that spot to become awkward.
For A$4 million rival jockeys are not going to open gates for opposition riders and being blocked down on the rail is certainly not where James McDonald will appreciate finding himself coming to the 600m.
You can pretty much trust McDonald's already considerable experience at the top end in Sydney will be enough to cope if that scenario arrives. It will take a strong padlock to keep him hemmed in - there is no tomorrow at the end of A$4 million races.
The glaring difference between It's A Dundeel's form this campaign to previous Australian racing is the lack of the dynamic, electric sprint at the end of his races. He almost looked dour working past Fiorente into second behind Silent Achiever in the closing stages of the BMW.
He will again need to find the sprint that took him past previously unbeaten champion mare Atlantic Jewel in Melbourne in the spring.
McDonald's Tuesday smile suggests he already has.
The surprise is that Australian bookmakers have opened Carlton House as not only favourite for the A$4 million feature, but a pronounced favourite over Silent Achiever.
The margin might have been narrow when Silent Achiever beat Carlton House in the 2400m BMW last start, but the New Zealand mare had to be good to achieve victory.
Kerrin McEvoy, with years of European experience, rode Carlton House in the European manner in which the stallion would have been comfortable. McEvoy led clearly then kept a lot of powder dry by allowing the field to almost head him on the corner before sprinting clear again.
It nearly worked and Silent Achiever had to be very brave.
Perhaps bookmakers are looking at the fact these horses are dropping back to 2000m from the 2400m and Carlton House had not previously been successful at 2400m, his group two and group three wins in England coming at distances close to 2000m. He finished third in the 2400m English Derby as favourite.
They may be relying on the fact that two of Silent Achiever's group one victories have been at 2400m, but she is a mare who can still produce an electric sprint at 2000m.
Victory would complete a massive double for trainer Gai Waterhouse, winning the Melbourne Cup with Fiorente and taking Australia's second richest race for The Queen.
She makes no secret of the fact she has set Carlton House to peak for this race. "When you get a horse from Her Majesty it is a great honour," she says.
"We of course looked at this race for him from the start of the preparation as the one we want to win.
"To win Her Majesty's race with Her Majesty's horse - it wouldn't get any better."
The famous colours will this time be carried by Tommy Berry, who for the BMW was in Singapore attending his seriously ill twin Nathan who died early this month.
Few, if any, occasions faze Berry. "It is an honour to be riding for Her Majesty, I haven't spoken to her yet but if he wins on Saturday I might be a chance.
"He is the right horse to do it. I have been confident of that for a long time.
"I'm lucky that Gai and Her Majesty have had the faith to put me back on him. He is a terrific horse and Kerrin McEvoy rode him really well. I will try to ride him the same because he just gets a tough 2000m.
"Okay, he hasn't won here but I know how good he is. He is thriving in trackwork."
The top of the TAB market: $3.50 Carlton House, $4.60 Silent Achiever, $5 It's A Dundeel, $8 Royal Descent, $9.50 Boban.
A leg injury has forced the retirement of Sharnee Rose and reduced the Queen of the Turf Stakes field on Saturday to nine.
The 5-year-old retires with a record of four wins and nine placings from her 29 starts.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Silent Achiever
• 5yrs mare O'Reilly-Winning Spree
• 25 starts, 10 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds. Stakes: $3,052,000.
• Trainer: Roger James
• Jockey: Nash Rawiller
• Group one wins, NZ Derby, NZ Stakes, Ranvet Stakes, BMW.
It's A Dundeel
• 4yrs stallion High Chaparral-Stardeel
• 15 starts, 9 wins, 4 seconds. Stakes: $3,656,481
• Trainer: Murray Baker• Jockey: James McDonald
• Group one wins: Championship Stakes, Randwick Guineas, Rosehill
Guineas, ATC Derby, Underwood Stakes.
Carlton House
• 6yrs stallion Street Cry-Talented
• 14 starts, 3 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third. Stakes: A$872,645.
• Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
• Jockey Tommy Berry
• No group one wins.
• No one could argue Carlton House is not a true international horse. He is
officially American bred by an Irish stallion, was Dubai owned by Sheikh
Mohammed, gifted to the Queen, raced in England, then in Hong Kong, and
was sent to Australia to be prepared by Gai Waterhouse.
American Me, a Canterbury pacer, will be racing at Auckland’s Alexandra Park tonight.