Racing: Tactics could beat Habibti

Habibti will seek to cap off a profitable December in the Flying Mile at Cambridge today. Photo / Stuart McCormick

Although drawn to perfection Dullard Cup winner could be crossed by faster rivals.

David Butt fears two of his least favoured rivals could hold the key to the chances of glamour mare Habibti at Cambridge today.

The chestnut was stunning at Melton 10 days ago when she won a group one trot against the older males, a feat rarely achieved by 4-year-old mares anywhere.

If she races up to that form she has to be the one to beat in today's $45,000 Flying Mile, where she has the potential advantage of barrier two while key rivals Stent (6) and Stig (7) are drawn wide.

Yet, while the Cambridge mile start point greatly favours those from inside draws, trainer-driver Butt is concerned Habibti could lose that advantage if speedsters Sovereignty and The Fiery Ginga take her on early.

"I am not sure she can beat them off the gate so it might not simply be a matter of getting straight to the front," said Butt.

"I am hoping the inside helps but if we burn really hard early then you set the race up for a horse like Stig later."

Butt knows all about that as he is the regular driver of Stig, who will be partnered by Anthony Butt today.

David drove the amazing veteran in this race last season when a searing early speed saw Stig round up his opponents in a 1:55.2 mile.

"That is the key to this race too," he admits.

"If we all burn then Stig might simply come and outstay us like he did last year, because he loves it when the speed is on.

"But if we can sneak a quarter [400m] then it will be a lot harder for those two drawn wide."

For all Stig's greatness and the ability of Stent, who was luckless when he got caught in the starting tapes last start, Habibti still deserves favouritism.

She has been raised on a diet of mobile, short-distance racing and her win at Melton confirmed she has developed from last season, when she won three Oaks and two Derbys, all mobile start classic.

She is capable of at least a 1:56 mile around Cambridge but the tactics of Allan Clark on The Fiery Ginga are the most likely to give Butt a nightmare.

Stig can, of course, win but will be better suited to the 2700m of next Tuesday's National Trot at Alexandra Park, a race he set the national record in last year, so Stent could well be the biggest threat to Habibti today.

He still seems vulnerable at the highest level but seems more comfortable over shorter trips n than the rigours of the Dominion Hcp, where he was clearly outpointed by Stig last month.

Sitting just off a solid speed at Cambridge today he gets his chance.

While the trotters' feature could be tactical, the main handicap pace should be relatively simple - if Mista Mara behaves and races up to anything like his last-start form he will win.

He finished second to a genuine topliner in Arden Rooney in the $50,000 Sales Series Pace at Kaikoura last start and while he is still inexperienced from a stand there are only two off the front, so he should have room to balance himself early.

The only shame is his race is not a leg of today's Pick6, guaranteed to a higher-than-usual $50,000 but with few anchors.

Cambridge Christmas crackers

*Best bet: Mista Mara (R4, No.1): Unless something goes wrong, he should win.
*Repeat: Pontiac (R10, No.9): Actually won tougher race last start so looks the most likely Pick6 anchor.
*Home track: Madisonz Luck (R2, No.6): Five starts here for three wins and two placings. Small field ideal.