Racing: Stacked fields make $250,000 Pick6 real challenge

There are 250,000 reasons to take the big Pick6 at Ellerslie today but that is not going to make it any easier.

As you would expect for a premier day, the fields almost across the board are stacked with form runners.

On a dry track that would be difficult to sort out, but in the conditions that punters will face today it makes the word nightmare spot on.

There is no real anchor in the $250,000 Pick6, but at least two of the legs, possibly three, narrow down to a couple of runners.

Not that you would be confident of nabbing any of those legs with a couple of runners, but for monetary reasons it is simply necessary to go a bit skinny on one or two legs, because a couple of races are real blowout affairs.

LEG ONE:

Taranaki trainer Allan Sharrock should hold the key to this leg with Don't Ya Lovett (No1) and Go Thenaki (No3). Sharrock has been wrong predicting which of the pair would win on the last two occasions these two faced each other, so keep that in mind when he leans the way of Don't Ya Lovett. Weight differential agrees with Sharrock - Don't Ya Lovett easily beat his stablemate giving him 4.5kg last start and this time has to concede only 1.5kg.

For a horse of his class, Don't Ya Lovett is remarkably well in with 55kg and if you wanted to make it one anchor for the day, he's probably it.

If the predicted rain arrives before this race and loosens the footing it will almost certainly promote the chances of Rat Tat (No4), who appreciates that type of track.

LEG TWO:

Bling Bling (No3) is going to find this easier than the Rotorua Cup. She made a giant step up in class for that race and did well to finish within 3.75 lengths of the winner Gliding. Rain to loosen conditions would suit her, too. Prangelica (No4) missed a place but still looked good finishing half a length from the winner at Rotorua last time. She should be fit now after two runs and this looks a nice race for her. For those going wider, Rhythm Method (No1), The Guitar Man (No6) and Securitas (No5) are the insurance in a very even field.

LEG THREE:

Who to leave out is the problem here. There is little to choose between them but to narrow it down, Graphite Girl (No6) ran below her best when expected to figure at Rotorua last start, but then so did a lot of others on the day, including Balmuse. Give her another chance on what should be a more suitable track.

Cruz Control (No4) struck problems last start and you need to assess her chances on her two previous winning runs.

Out wider, Quartze (No2) is very fit after racing here last week, Cape Kinaveral (No1) won well in testing ground at Te Aroha and Waikeria (No3) scored a tough victory on this track last week.

You can feel well pleased with yourself if you successfully get past this leg.

LEG FOUR:

The upset chances here are enormous, but Surprizer Phew (No3) and Danz Star (No5) stand out a little. They fought a hard battle to finish in that order at Te Rapa last start with Danz Star having an advantages this time, including a 1kg swing. If you're taking a small Pick6, standing these two out on their own gives you a sound chance.

It's even more complicated if you go wider. Leica Guv (No1) probably has to be in there, along with Shanamann (No2), I Rock My World (No6) and Santoya (No9), who can upset any field on her day. If the rain's arrived, Something Majic (No8) loves the wet.

LEG FIVE:

The last two legs are a headache. Imapins (No9) was impressive winning at Te Rapa last start, but conditions here are likely to be a lot different, particularly late in the day. She still rates highly as does Pace And Grace (No2), whose consistency in the mud is to be admired.

Then you get to Frilly Milly (No8) and last week's winner Senorita Ivory (No4). The blowouts could be Rose Of Arcadia (No3), a dropback horse that will claim 4kg, and On The Quiet (No18). The latter is a long shot and is coming back from injuries.

LEG SIX:

Unlike in his previous two winning runs, Del Toro (No3) did not claim an apprentice allowance last start and with 58kg on his back he was still beaten a bare nose by Luckshan. Lee Callaway gets back on and the 2kg brings him back to a more comfortable 55kg. He will be very hard to beat. If you've just got him in the last running for you, don't be confident, but you're in with a big shout.

Pinprick (No6), Ala Moana (No2), Luckshan (No4) will get plenty of support and Dead Rabbits (No8) with Noel Harris on its back is not out of it.

In a desperately tough race for the last leg of Pick6, percentage players cannot afford to leave out Gold Memba (No5), Bellevue Lass (No9) and Censored (No10).

Good luck, you'll need it.