Racing: St Leger followed long distance

It will be night time, but Kylie Bax will be listening in Los Angeles to her horse Aeroforce One run in tomorrow's $50,000 St Leger Stakes at Trentham.

Father and fellow owner Graham Bax will be calling his famous daughter just before the Trentham action to relay the racecall to her.

Kylie Bax might be one of the world's most famous models, but she is heavily involved with thoroughbreds. Aeroforce One is of particular interest because his dam, Avondale Cup winner Maurine, was bought by Kylie Bax and her family for $200,000 as a foundation broodmare for her breeding operation in New Zealand. She also owns a 100-acre thoroughbred breeding farm in Lexington, Kentucky.

Aeroforce One's trainer Roger James believes he could be running only for second money. That pretty much mimics the opinions of rival trainers with standout favourite Kerry O'Reilly in the field.

Aeroforce One may not be able to win. If the track is in reasonable shape he can't beat Kerry O'Reilly with even luck and if the track comes up easy, which is likely, both are potentially out of business.

The Trentham track has been significantly irrigated this week and was 2.8 easy on Wednesday morning and no firmer yesterday. The forecast for solid rain was yesterday modified to scattered showers or scattered rain, but even that would be enough to see the Trentham surface cutting out tomorrow.

"No, he won't like it," said Kerry O'Reilly's trainer Jim Gibbs. "That's why I'm glad he's drawn out wide, at least that will give Mickey Coleman the chance to pick his ground. I'd be very worried if he'd drawn No 1 or No 2, because it will cut up on the inside."

On a firm surface Kerry O'Reilly is the standout bet of the month.

Even the normally conservative Gibbs says: "He'll take a hell of a lot of beating."

If Kerry O'Reilly comes safely through this race Gibbs has some thinking to do.

"There's a possibility I might take him to the Hawkes Bay Cup a month later, which suits timewise. If he won there, well, I'd have to think about taking him back for a race like the Kelt as a course winner.

"The way the stakes are for our two mile races, $200,000 and $300,000 and the like, you have to look at a million dollars.

"He doesn't spell very well, so keeping him ticking over quietly through the winter would be ideal."

The St Leger will become a raffle if there is significant rain and the track is downgraded to nearly soft.