Racing: Some tough choices at Te Rapa

As a dual winner on the course and with his current form, Ourforeignminister picks himself. Photo / Supplied

You'd like to think that the very forgiving Te Rapa - despite the wet weather - might provide us with a fairer surface to match the Pick6 form than in recent weeks.

We'll see.

Leg 1
The first leg is tough in that there are plenty of chances. The best of them are probably New Moon (forget the paper form), No Excuse Maggie, Ourforeignminister and John Gray and that's leaving out the talented Diana, whom you might like to include.

New Moon has been freshened and that might be the key here. The weather has been better than forecast and that's also in his favour. He's very good at best, he finishes strongly and the smallish field will suit. Don't leave him out. As a dual winner on the course and with his current form, Ourforeignminister picks himself and No Excuse Maggie won stylishly on this track two starts back before a better run than it looked on paper at Ruakaka. John Gray tends to mix his form and the 59kg is all you want to carry in these conditions, but he has James McDonald aboard and he's very smart when conditions suit.

Leg 2
Nightmare comes close - massive potential for a blowout here. You have to stick with form, though, and Pubs fought hard when in front at Taranaki last week only to be run down late. She will be fit and hard for this after that race and deserves strong consideration. Possibly Possum could be an upsetter. He was coming back from a year's break when he stopped badly after leading at Te Aroha recently, but you couldn't blame him given the circumstances and the conditions that day. He looked okay last time in and might surprise with a bold run. Abbotabad looked like a horse potentially on the way through when he won on debut on this track last start. Naturally this is a bit tougher, but not impossibly so. The well-bred Cool Diamond is coming back from a long break, but is another who could win without surprising. Throw in Ghostinthemachine if you can afford one more.

Leg 3
Another race with no stand-outs. Magna Carta was only just topped off at Ruakaka last time and looks a horse on the verge of breaking through. He has a handy draw and James McDonald. Palmero, Abstain and Gold Message are others to consider in a race that will be a head-shaker if the favourite is beaten.

Leg 4
As even a Taumarunui Cup as we've seen. The Jungle Boy deserves the top slot for his recent form and two winning runs at Te Rapa. Montjee, Dubhdara and Halls behind him, but there is barely a runner that could win and surprise.

Leg 5
Nice field with plenty of winning chances. You have to include Arnold, even though the tracks have been wetter in his last two wins than he's going to strike here and he looks a dead-set mudder. Cosabella was close up in the strong Highlight race at Ruakaka and rates highly as a course winner and you need to include Te Toro Lass and Glamorous Girl.

Leg 6
Very open with the scratching of the favourite, Simpre Arriba. Clifton Ridge has chased Simpre Arriba and Wai Not home in two recent seconds, which is good form. He meets Wai Not 1.5kg better this time and that could be significant. King Of The Desert went huge at Ruakaka to come from last and be beaten a nose. He jumps quickly from 1200m to 1600m, but he had to be fit to do what he did at Ruakaka. Mangaroa Flyer is one from one at Te Rapa.

Bank builders

* Quick back-up: Last week's gun winner Baldovino (R2) is on a seven-day back-up, but he hardly had a race to score at Ruakaka last week. Tough to bowl against stronger opposition.

* Trials performer: Debut runner Miama Provocateur (R1) has won both barrier trials well enough to be considered a chance to score a first-up juvenile victory.

* Don't forget: That stayers race well when fresh over 1400m. Innocent Lady (R3) last raced over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but put that behind you when summing up the form.

* Ignore form: New Moon (R4) faces a couple of decent sorts, but should have freshened well since last racing. The better the Te Rapa track, the better his chances.

* Try again: Possibly Possum (R5) was having his first start in a year when fading at Te Aroha last start. He led and it just wasn't a day you could do that against the rail. He might not be without a chance this time.

* Winner in three: Arnold (R8), Simpre Arriba (R9) and Innocent Lady (R3).