Hastings jumper has conditions to suit as he tackles Trentham feature.
If handicaps count for anything Victory Morgan can make it four straight in tomorrow's $47,500 Ricoh Wellington Hurdles a Trentham.
The rapid riser of the hurdling ranks meets perhaps his toughest rival Solid Steal almost on the same weight differential as when he beat him into second in the Awapuni
Hurdles.
In the same race, Harvest The Gold carried the same weight as Victory Morgan, 63kg, and finished 4 lengths away in third. By virtue of having subsequently won the Hawkes Bay Hurdles, he meets Victory Morgan 1.5kg worse.
But it might not be quite that easy.
You get the sense by watching Solid Steal's recent races he's on the verge of winning form as he was in this race 12 months ago, which he won with tomorrow's rider Jonathan Riddell in the saddle.
He then went on to win the Great Northern Hurdles at Ellerslie, only to lose the race in the inquiry room.
Of the three races this preparation only one, the Awapuni Hurdles, has been over jumps and he should be greatly improved by it.
That certainly looked the case when he plugged into a game third on the flat at Awapuni last week, in a race he could not have been considered a contender in.
There are a few chances, but Victory Morgan has to be considered as one of the main dangers.
"I'm very happy he hasn't gone backwards since last winning," said trainer Shane Brown, who has done a fine job with the horse.
"I'm delighted by the way he gets into this race on handicaps. He's won the Awapuni Hurdles and he's only half a kilo above the minimum.
"It gives him a real chance."
This race is going to be won by a horse that can really find the line in the closing 200m and that's what Harvest The Gold did at Hastings.
His Irish rider Stephen Gray has returned from Australia, where he has been recently based, for just the one ride, although he has landed the mount on outsider Nyazi in the maiden hurdle.
Astute trainer Mark Oulaghan is happy. "I thought the Hastings track last start may have been a bit good for him, but he coped and this time it will be a lot more testing."
Mount Sinai is easy to under-rate at times, yet he is probably always the horse to beat. He was beaten a short head and a nose in the Hawkes Bay Hurdles, won the K S Browne Hurdles at Ellerslie two starts back. He should get some of this.
Verdict: Solid Steal, Harvest The Gold, Mount Sinai.
Forget what looks to be moderate lead-up form, look to Yourtheman to be the horse to beat in the Grant Plumbing Wellington Steeplechase.
There is nothing trainer Mark Oulaghan would like more than to erase the memory of the normally safe Yourtheman slipping and falling mid-race in last year's Wellington Steeplechase.
He had previously won the Hawkes Bay Steeplechase and subsequently went on to narrowly chase home stablemate Counter Punch in the Koral and Grand National Steeplechases at Riccarton.
Oulaghan expects improvement this time.
"He's had two steeplechases this time in and he's had new riders on each time. He's a funny horse and I don't think the riders clicked with him first time."
Irishman Richard Culley rode Yourtheman last start and Oulaghan is confident of a better result this time.
"I think he's got him sussed," says the trainer of Richard Culley.
Climbing High is the form horse, although he has to prove he can manage the very testing, wet conditions.
In last year's Hawkes Bay Steeplechase Yourtheman beat Climbing High under almost exactly the same weight differential as exists tomorrow.
Climbing High is a bold galloper and dashing jumper - except when he loses concentration - and can probably put some distance on some of these through the central figure-eight configuration through the centre of Trentham. But he has to be able to last the 5500m after what will be an extremely testing final 400m.
Climbing High's recent races have been at 4800m (Hawkes Bay Steeples), 4150m (Ellerslie's McGregor Grant) and the 4000m of the Waikato Steeples.
This will be a much tougher slog for a speedy jumper.
It might be the type of race that will suit Mali Juraj. He has had just a highweight and a hurdle race since winning the Waikato Steeplechase in May and looked good finishing strongly in the hurdles last start.
He is well up to the class of these.
Consideration has to be given to Mr Align after the stamina he showed to pick up Climbing High in the closing 100m of a very testing McGregor Grant Steeplechase at Ellerslie.
MIKE DILLON'S PUNTING POINTERS
Late flyer: You couldn't help but be impressed by the way Prestigious Miss finished off to win at Ruakaka last start. On the basis of horses for courses alone, she makes appeal in the big juvenile go tomorrow, but apart from that she looks like a filly on the rise.
Go the green: We weren't wrong about Trust in Sir Patrick's dual green colours. She goes up another grade for that last Ruakaka victory, but if she cops a decent surface even that might not be enough to stop her.
Another star. Talk about futures - hasn't Cap Eden Roc got one? It's going to take a decent effort to hold her out in the fillies' and mares' final tomorrow.
Luck must change: The wide barrier this time is not pretty, but Toma Valea must go close to quitting maidens shortly.
Hat-trick: Go Strapped For Cash. A third straight Trentham Parliamentary Handicap would be special. He won it two years ago with 58kg and last year with 59kg and has the same weight again.
