KEY POINTS:
Ted Durcan's opinion is one you want to listen to.
So when he says New Zealand mare Seachange is not as forlorn a chance in tomorrow morning's US$5 million ($6.2 million) Dubai Duty Free as some would have you believe, you pay attention.
The Irish rider who has
made the Dubai jockeys' premiership pretty much his own is a fanatical form analyst.
He has studied the card for the world's richest night of horse racing to a greater depth than anyone and says he and Seachange are a chance against some of the world's best racehorses.
The big plus, he says, is that the race will develop into a pattern that will be "messy". By that he means there will be no pace on.
The 1777m is a little beyond Seachange's comfort zone and Durcan says the race will almost certainly be a sit-and-sprint affair which will hopefully nullify that disadvantage.
"This race is always run slowly,"he said. "Because the field is so good no one wants to go out and lead and it ends up messy.
"I've ridden in the race most of the last six or seven years and it's been like it every time (perhaps not in 2001 when Sunline was taken on in front and made to work by a Godolphin horse)."
Durcan won the Duty Free on Rhythm Band in 2000. "The year the Australian horse [Elvstroem] won we walked around."
Durcan hasn't been on Seachange's back since the pair finished just out of the money in the Dubai lead-up after virtually sharing the front until 200m out.
But the Irishman is impressed with her overall condition.
"I see her practically every morning and she looks an absolute million."
New Zealand trainer Ralph Manning said at this week's press conference in Dubai that Seachange properly settled into her surroundings after the lead-up race and has improved in overall condition.
"Some people have been knocking her, but she'll go a lot better than they think," said Durcan.
"In her first race she had a seven pound penalty [as a group one winner], an outside barrier draw and didn't have the fitness level she's got now.
"This time she's properly fit and has a good barrier [No 4] to work with. I'm very excited about riding her. She's got more natural speed than anything else in the race.
"Naturally you'd prefer to see the race at 1600m, but hopefully I can hang on to her for longer than I could in the lead-up race. Hopefully stamina won't be an issue because of the way they'll run it."
Durcan has done his form and rates the Irish filly Finsceal Beo as the one to beat.
"I also like the French filly [Dargina] and the Japanese filly [Vodka] as well. It might be a night for the girls."
The daunting task facing Seachange can be gauged by the form background of the horses Durcan mentions. Finsceal Beo last year won both the English and Irish versions of the 1000 Guineas and was just beaten in the French 1000 Guineas.
Last year Vodka became the first filly in 46 years to win the Japanese Derby.
This will be the biggest hill Seachange will ever climb. If she even places tomorrow morning it will be a magnificent effort.
Trackside TV will be showing the Dubai World Cup meeting live from Nad Al Sheba on digital TV (not UHF). Radio Trackside will transmit the live TV feed.
The coverage commences with the Godolphin Mile at 2.40am. Seachange runs in the Dubai Duty Free at 4.55am.