Racing: Serena has picked the right Cup to dominate

Howard Bromac (left) beats London Legend in the New Zealand Free-For-All. Picture / Simon Baker

Among the myriad of reasons Alta Serena should win tomorrow's $250,000 Auckland Cup one stands out.

Yes, she is racing in the best form of her career, now finally sound after a career-long war with leg and hoof soreness.

And it will definitely help that she is on her home track, with a good draw over a distance that suits her dogmatic style.

And the fact her trainers and driver are bursting with confidence is another plus.

But the main reason Alta Serena should win tomorrow's classic is not just to do with her but her opposition, because - and this is the part nobody wants to say out loud - this is a bad Auckland Cup field.

Not disgraceful. Not dreadful. Just bad.

Of course a bad Auckland Cup field is still a great race. But compared with some years this is way off the pace.

Recent winners like Elsu, Holmes D G or Christian Cullen could start on Sunday and they would still win.

That is nobody's fault. The Auckland Trotting Club has done its best to get pacing's elite to the race but when you lose Elsu, Sly Flyin, Just An Excuse, Mi Muchacho and Myron to injury in the space of a few months the cupboard looks a bit bare.

So here is the best angle from which to look at tomorrow's 3200m race. If all the good horses were there, would any of tomorrow's starters have a winning chance?

Answer: Probably only Alta Serena. With Howard Bromac a roughie. Because when it comes to the big time Howard Bromac has been even more of a bridesmaid (or should that be best man) than Alta Serena.

With the champions retired or resting it almost looks a race in two and both the favourites have had plenty go there way.

Both have drawn well and will command enough respect in a field of this quality to get handy without fear of being left parked.

But on what they have shown this season Alta Serena may just be a length sharper than Howard Bromac. Maybe not even that much, but at the top level that can be enough.

Alta Serena was the unluckiest runner in the New Zealand Cup when she got locked away until Mainland Banner had the race won and then returned to the big stage by storming into fifth in the Victoria Cup two weeks ago.

She confirmed she had taken no harm from that performance and the trip to Melbourne when she paced her opening 800m in 56 seconds before holding out some top mares in the Queen Of Hearts last Friday.

She is fit, usually well-mannered and will be driven to win the race. Which makes tomorrow her day.

"I couldn't be happier with her and all we need is no bad luck," said co-trainer Brian Hughes.

"She is the soundest she has ever been and is right at the top of her game. These races aren't easy to win but the build-up couldn't have gone better."

Alta Serena is usually good from a stand so should settle handy. From there driver Brent Mangos can keep an eye on his key rivals and move accordingly.

He suggested this week he would be happy to lead and that would be ideal because few in tomorrow's race could attack her and still be a chance.

That could actually be the whole key to tomorrow's race, with so few of the starters having the ability to work in a race at this level those who settle handy will have a massive advantage.

That reduces the chances of Alta Serena being shuffled back if she does settle in the racing line, so with bad luck becoming less of a factor her chances just keep getting better.

Of course, it won't just be a matter of turning up and winning. After all, Alta Serena has been beaten more times than she has won. But she will never get a more suitable Cup race than tomorrow.

If she is to be the bridesmaid again then Howard Bromac is the obvious beneficiary.

He shares many of Alta Serena's attributes and has gone two stunning races in the last two Auckland Cups.

His trainer-driver Kirk Larsen wisely under-drove the gelding last season when he was happy to take the crumbs from Elsu's table but with this field down on class he will never get a better chance to put him in the race.

He looks a great each way bet.

Bobs Blue Boy is a bit one-paced but that might be a help over 3200m and his run in the Summer Cup last week was one of an improver because he paraded looking burly.

His best chance tomorrow would be if he can step to the front, which is quite possible. Either way he is a must for trifectas.

Tribute has turned his form around since the New Zealand Cup meeting and from the ace draw can upset if he gets the perfect trip while Harnetts Creek and Napoleon are upsets hopes if things go there way.

Then there is Lord Vader, who would be a serious winning hope if he was off the front line and was guaranteed to step. Instead he is off the unruly and is every chance of making a mistake, especially facing the big crowd at the tricky 3200m standing start point.