Racing: Ruud Van Slaats hot tip at Te Rapa

Fairfield Flame had a runaway victory at Rotorua three starts back when things did go right. Photo / Supplied

Rain forecast for today.

Really?

We'll need to know the extent before we can be confident about nominating for Te Rapa today.

It will be a shame if it comes to much. Here's how it will change things - the footing until today should be suiting strong on-pace runners like Ruud Van Slaats in the Isuzu Stakes (Race 9), but rain would make it much more difficult to lead and winners would start to come from back in the field and in the centre of the track, particularly late in the programme as this race is.

Let's assume that won't happen. Trainer John Sargent says Ruud Van Slaats is fitter than when she was beaten a half-head by Culminate in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe last start and is right back to where she was in this week last year.

Given she won this race with an on-pace performance last year, that's good enough to suggest she can repeat, provided conditions suit. The weather will play such a big part.

On decent footing Veloce Bella will be storming into the result late. She lost a racing plate and did well in an on-pace dominated race to finish within 3.25 lengths of Culminate in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe, coming from near last. The step from 1400m to 1600m here is a massive plus. Scarlet Vanhara and Ekstreme are dangers.

Mercury Mistress (No4, R1) is a good way to start the day. She has always looked better than average and did well to finish second at Te Aroha last start. There was a fierce leaders' bias that day and Spera, who she finished second to, took the advantage. She tried hard late and will be suited by the jump to 1600m this time. This race suits. The value for trifectas could be Foxy Cougar (No10) despite the fact she has had only two starts, has yet to run a place and faces winners here in a special conditions race. She has ability and there was plenty to admire about her recent fourth at Te Aroha.

Race 2, the second special conditions race, has drawn a beaut betting line-up. Khemosabi (No1) is smart. He didn't look entirely happy in the wet conditions on Avondale Cup day, but never stopped trying to out-muscle narrow winner Marzia. They drew out from the rest and Khemosabi's determination should be suited to the 1400m here. Lots of chances. Mark Walker's pair of Pezzaglia (No7) and Affirmation (No3) will give Khemosabi plenty to think about and Italian Princess (No5) and Charlotte's Sister (No2) help make this a great race.

The 2-year-old race is interesting. Lion Tamer (No2. R3) surprised everyone when he came from last in a staying contest on debut to win at Pukekohe. The question is whether he can repeat that in a sharper race here, which it will be if conditions are firm. He swept past pacemaker Sirrio (No3) only in the closing stages after a long run down the Pukekohe home straight and Sirrio didn't help himself by appearing to get lost in front and gawking around. There was only a long neck in it and Sirrio from a better draw than Lion Tamer might prove more difficult to pull back this time. Lion Tamer is smart and so are Icepin (No5) and Elle Tresor (No6). Icepin ruined his chance when favourite on debut at Ellerslie by tailing off after bucking early and he did well to be only 4.75 lengths off Sirrio. A wide barrier helped beat Elle Tresor (No6) at Pukekohe and she has drawn No9 of the 10 runners again. With luck she can still be in the trifecta.

There is an interesting statisic in Race 4. In March this year Celeris (No9, R4) finished third, beaten threequarters of a length and one and threequarter lengths by Geeza, who goes around as topweight in this race. At Ellerslie that day Celeris gave Geeza 1.5kg and this time receives 4.5kg from him.

That's a massive 6kg differential, which at this level is something you simply cannot ignore. Geeza is good - he went on to be just beaten in the A$125,000 Brisbane Plate by Youthful Jack in Queensland and finished third to Court in the BTC Classic. Geeza was beaten by a wide gate at Ellerslie when resuming on Melbourne Cup day and he might be beaten by the weight scale here. Celeris has drawn ideally at No 2. Wealth Princess (No8) is unbeaten in three attempts and has been hugely impressive. This is another sharp rise in class though. Vincent Mangano (No5) is a chance if started here instead of the open 1400m.

Tootsie (No4, R5) was unlucky in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe. She finished only 1.5 lengths from Culminate after an early check and that, at level weights that day, is great form for a race like this. Another enormous plus is that she's had three starts at Te Rapa for three wins. Her former stablemate Run Like Al (No1) has appreciated being beach trained and was super impressive winning easily at Ellerslie last time and is a two-time Te Rapa winner. Santangelo (No12) and Attalla (No10) are value multiple bet runners.

You can forget the recent form of Fairfield Flame (No4, R6). Things went badly wrong at Rotorua two starts back and again at Otaki last start, where she covered a fair bit of extra ground before being beaten 1.5 lengths by Figuring. Go here on the runaway victory at Rotorua three starts back when things did go right. The small field will allow her to be ridden quietly. Albaladejo (No2) and Off And On (No1) are the form horses.

You won't get rich, but Passchendaele (No7, R7) should go very close to taking out the Waikato Cup at her first open class attempt. She's done everything right and returns to her favourite left-handed racing. What beats her will win. O'Reilly Rose (No3) and Bakup (No9) are musts for multiple bettors.

Kiwi Hussler (No3, R8) never got a real crack at them at Otaki last start when fancied to win. You can forget his seventh there and have an each-way crack at him in this. Two starts back he was a close third on this track over a too-short 1600m. Selenic (No9) could be value in the trifecta.

The No13 barrier draw is hardly ideal for La Etoile (No3, R10), but at least it's the 1600m starting point which allows the entire length of the back straight to get organised before the first bend. La Etoile is a mare on the way through and won nicely in good company at Otaki last start, finding the finish line strongly.

Spirits Bay (No8) is the value. She covered extra ground when beaten at Ellerslie last start and deserves another chance. She is a lot better than her form reads.