As a previous stylish Te Rapa winner Arrow In The Sand (No5, R3) is going to have plenty of support. She has had just the six raceday appearances, so should be still improving. She got a long way back over 1400m at Avondale last start and should be better suited by 1600m here. Capinsky (No3) did not get all the breaks last start and can be right in this.
Rock Diva (No6, R4) is the class act of this race. She got back and did nothing when resuming, but will be a lot fitter for this. Don't forget her 3-year-old form, which included a luckless fourth in the Queensland Derby two starts back. Curious (No8) is putting together a good record and from an inside gate looks one of the dangers.
With luck Dufellforte (No1, R5) would have won one of his three races this campaign. He was close up third in a good field at Avondale last start when things went against him. This is also a useful line-up, but he rates as a strong chance, particularly each-way. Massale (No4) is close to a win. He deserves a good run of form after shocking luck in the Karaka Million.
After two stunning victories Awesome Goal (No1, R6) is going to be all the rage, but it is not easy to lump 59.5kg topweight and be successful against a premier day field, particularly over a distance as testing as 2400m. He is still in the race, but has to give 4kg to the likes of Zedpak (No7), also winner of his last two. One advantage for Awesome Goal is his inside barrier, which should allow Opie Bosson to give him an economical trip.
The level of our stayers at the moment makes for confusing reading in races like the line-up facing up in the Waikato Times Gold Cup. The class is such that it is probably going to pay to rely on the emerging horses, types like Show The World (No9, R7) and Delago's Secret (No13). Show The World cost punters plenty when beaten favourite at Avondale last start, but things went wrong. He is going to be much better suited over 2400m here, down on 53kg from the 56.5kg he carried at Avondale.
Delago's Secret's run in the Counties Cup was better than it looked on paper and he's twice been a winner at Te Rapa, which means he is probably better left-handed.
Race 8 should be a classic. You've got a smart sort in Jubilate (No2), course specialist Spin Doctor (No1) and a real bunch of up and comers. Spin Doctor has won five of his nine Te Rapa starts.
If you think the 59kg topweight looks prohibitive, that's what most thought when he lumped 61kg on this track two starts back and he won by a margin.
Jubilate probably should have won at Awapuni last start and with Spin Doctor in the race drops from 58kg to 56kg. He won't be long out of the winner's list.
Trainer Shaune Ritchie has a niggling feeling Atacama (No3, R9) might be a touch vulnerable because he hasn't been able to give the classy mare quite the level of work he would have liked after winning at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day. The saving grace he feels is that Atacama has drawn an inside barrier, which should create an economical trip. Kelly O'Reilly (No7) showed her true worth winning at Avondale and there was no fluke about the victory. She will be super competitive again.
At Awapuni, O'Marilyn (No1, R7) will be all the rage in the Eulogy Stakes. She did not handle the track at Riccarton in the 1000 Guineas, even though it was rated good and that run is best forgotten. She will be the filly to beat, but don't ignore the emerging Palace Rock (No11), even though it was just maiden class she cleared last start. She is the real deal.
We'll start to get serious about the Derby in March when the 3-year-olds race over 2100m in tomorrow's $50,000 Jesters Pies 3YO Salver at Ellerslie.
The real stayers will be separated from the pretenders.
The 3-year-old that has impressed most as a staying type is Midnitemagicman, one of the remarkable Tavistock success stories this season.
The ground he made up to finish second to the talented filly Tavy at Ellerslie last start was remarkable. It's never easy stepping from 1500m to 2100m, but he looks like one who could cope.
Midnitemagicman has a stunning sprint, which generally separates the very good 3-year-olds from the good 3-year-olds.
He has had just five starts and looks the real improver. He is a grandson of high class mare Our Tristalight, who won close to half a million dollars and was a daughter of the great Tudor Light.
Mongolian Khan has stylishly won two of his three starts and is a quality type. The Austrian Oak is an improver and there is a wealth of emerging staying talent in the remainder of the field.
