By MIKE DILLON
The million-dollar news is that it did not rain at Te Rapa yesterday.
That's just what punters needed to hear heading into this afternoon's $1 million Pick6.
Rain was always going to make today's job impossible.
Now it is only nearly impossible.
Well, not quite.
A track, sodden earlier in the week, will
produce a 2.6-2.7 (penetrometer) surface this morning, provided it did not rain overnight.
Given the weather, that type of track would be remarkable.
"With the right weather it could be 2.5 by the time they race," said course manager Neil Treweek.
That would provide almost every horse with a winning chance, rather than punters having to decide which half of each Pick6 field to leave out.
Leg three could be the key.
LEG 1
It is either Taatletail in one, or take half a dozen.
There is a definite risk in anchoring Taatletail, but she does represent great class. Forget that she went around when well beaten in the Eight Carat Classic last start, the right-handed track did not suit.
A greater concern is the fact she has been racing from the start of the season and is meeting horses who have emerged much more recently.
Trainer Stephen Autridge says he is happy with her though and is completely unconcerned that it will be Taatletail's first start beyond 1600m.
If you go wider, Kind Return, Justine Coup, Danette and Filante Etoile give a good cover.
Kind Return had little luck when fifth in the Oaks last start.
LEG 2
It should be Etoile Du Nord and Our Fuji with the rest carving up whatever those two leave. They really stand out and if you want to anchor one, consider that trainers Roger James and Leanne Bertling are aiming Etoile Du Nord at the Sydney Cup.
It's pretty simple, if you don't win today, you don't win the Sydney Cup.
Our Fuji has class, but giving Etoile Du Nord 3.5kg in his first middle distance run would put him in group one category if he could pull it off.
He was well beaten in the group one Thorndon Mile last start, but went a much better race when beaten just a head in the Ellerslie equivalent the time before.
The rest look even with Vanessatheundressa, Fountain Abbey and Shifting Sand perhaps the best.
LEG 3
What should have been the toughest race on the programme might hold the key to today's Pick6.
The group one $100,000 Whakanui Stud International Stakes looks the anchor race.
Class mares Penny Gem and Lashed stand out. If you wanted to go one wider, throw El Duce in on his favourite racetrack.
If you wanted to take it down to one, you could do worse than anchor Penny Gem. Lashed beat her home in the $150,000 Zabeel Classic last start, but the way the race was run favoured Lashed more than Penny Gem that day. So, too, did the firm surface. Whatever the weather does, there will still be a nice cushion on today's track and that's just what Penny Gem is looking for.
Penny Gem, Lashed, El Duce, in that order.
LEG 4
Kajema almost gives the impression he's forgotten how to win, but he does enough each time to warrant respect at his next start. It took an exceptional effort by Wings On Fire to beat him one length at Trentham on Wellington Cup day.
If he is beaten again, you probably need four or five to guarantee a result.
Deebee Jean will win a good race one day and has had enough experience now to go close in this company.
Baloney, Carrera and Bejayjay are necessary for those going multiple in this leg.
LEG 5
This should be easy if you stick with class, but you get the impression there is at least some chance of an upset.
The punters of class will go for King's Chapel, Sedecrem, Vinaka and Pay My Bail.
Going that wide compels most punters to bet narrow in other legs and there are not too many legs that lend themselves to that.
Take it down to one and it's Sedecrem. Include one other and it's a toss-up between Pay My Bail and Vinaka. To put Pay My Bail in for second you need to assure yourself from the first few races before Pick6 starts that the racing pattern is aiding on-pace runners. Her speed and fighting spirit suit that style of racing.
LEG 6
If you have to narrow it down to one here it's Bon Ace.
On paper the form looks just okay, but that doesn't tell the whole story. She was unlucky when fourth at Trentham last start, finished a close fifth in a better field than this in the Anniversary Handicap the time before.
If you're lucky enough to have a few in the last, look at Dancer In The Dark, Komplete Kaos and Kristov.
If you're looking at a really budget Pick6, anchor around Etoile Du Nord (leg 2), Penny Gem (leg 3), Sedecrem (leg 5).
By MIKE DILLON
The million-dollar news is that it did not rain at Te Rapa yesterday.
That's just what punters needed to hear heading into this afternoon's $1 million Pick6.
Rain was always going to make today's job impossible.
Now it is only nearly impossible.
Well, not quite.
A track, sodden earlier in the week, will
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