KEY POINTS:
An amazing statistic emerged from the Railway Stakes at Ellerslie on January 1.
Because of the new special weight conditions of the race there were three badly disadvantaged horses - Jacowils, Dashing Donna and Pinsoir.
They finished first, second and third.
Is that just a fluke result, or
is it yet another example of how weight is much less important in sprint races than it is over longer distances?
The scale of the weights for tomorrow's $1 million Telegraph are overall down 1.5kg on the Railway and Jacowils and Dashing Donna's weights reflect that, but Pinsoir is much better off this time.
He drops from 57kg to 54kg and that could well win him the race.
This is a remarkably competitive race. Speed maps can be done for most races - try doing one for this Telegraph and you come up with half of one. There are just too many variables to guarantee accuracy.
Pinsoir, though, is one you can almost bet will be three or four places back along the rails from his No 1 barrier.
With so many runners likely to look at coming across the face of the field early to avoid being caught wide, the No 1 barrier in a race like the Telegraph is not always ideal.
Down the dog-leg 1200m at Trentham, inside horses can get squeezed out of the action, but trainer Paul Duncan is happy with the scenario.
"He'll be locked away for a while, but that's generally the way he races best," says Duncan. "Some of his worst efforts have been when he's in the open or racing up outside the lead."
Duncan knows Pinsoir, to be ridden by Michael Coleman, suffered his bad luck in the Railway and might have even won.
"It was a huge run and when he dashed at them he didn't really have much room."
The 17-day back-up would not generally concern many trainers, but Duncan wishes he had longer between the two races.
"His best efforts have been when he's had three to four weeks between runs, but he's a much stronger horses this season, so perhaps it's not a factor."
There is no question luck will decide this race.
With only a handful of exceptions, the perfect scenario for most of this field would be to be sitting somewhere between 6th and 9th with cover and have a clear run ahead from the 300m.
It's that type of run that will win the race.
Leading won't be impossible, but it's going to be extremely difficult.
One who could achieve it is Ruud Van Slaats, simply because she has the type of grit to set a pace and defy the opposition.
She did it winning the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe and again in stakes class at Te Rapa last start.
In both races she looked vulnerable in the home straight, but showed the heart that only top class horses possess. She looks well placed with 53.5kg and her work since winning at Te Rapa has been first class.