Katie McKeen could be a good option in the Cup. Photo / Race Images
For and against. That's the logic you can apply to each of the major chances in tomorrow's $65,000 Taumarunui Gold Cup at Rotorua.
Which is not what you need to hear when looking to sort out a major winner.
Here is the state of play. The logical winner if you look at it from a weight perspective - generally important - is Francis Drake. He scored dominant victories under 59kg and 61kg at Ruakaka and Te Rapa before being beaten under a crushing and generally impossible weight of 62.5kg at Te Rapa last start.
The wins were on decent surfaces. An important fact here is that he is at his best in those conditions and has not won on a heavy track. His two attempts in the heavy resulted in a third and a fifth. Yes, he was a close third on this track in heavy 11 conditions five starts back in May, but that was in R85 in easier class than he faces this time. He carried 57kg that day and at 56kg is only a fraction below that in a tougher race. Being by Tavistock, Francis Drake is best when allowed to use his good natural speed and is not a dour mudder. This race will be a slog. There has to be a question mark even though he is the best in the field in the right conditions.
The question over Duffers Creek is that the majority of his wins have come in sprints and up to 1600m. He has won at 1810m in the Kumara Nuggets and has yet to be tested at this 2200m. Under those conditions, for a horse turning eight next week, he also has to be a risk.
Pump Up The Volume is a Rotorua Cup winner in conditions like we will see tomorrow, but his latest form, while good, has probably been a length or two below that level. He was recently 6.1 lengths behind Pacorus in this season's Rotorua Cup edition and although that horse would be winning here had he been entered, Pump Up The Volume, a few days away from being nine, has probably run his best races.
In all three cases though, you need to remember racehorses are put on earth to make fools of humans and any one of the trio could win without the grandstand crashing down.
Which might lead you to Katie McKeen, who impressed everyone with her runaway victory in the mud at New Plymouth last Saturday.
She had to work hard to land the lead in that race and never looked like coming back to the others. The winning margin was 8.3 lengths, which puts the tough mare into this race with a comfortable 54.5kg on her back. She has been ridden by apprentice Alfred Chan, but there are no claims in this ride and Mark Du Plessis takes the mount. It may not be a leaders' race and swoopers could be better suited, she has more than one positive in her favour.
Jochen Rindt surprised a few by winning the Rotorua Cup here earlier in the season. He hasn't been easy to follow, but trainer and part owner Terry Wenn has given him extensive jumping in his training and it appears to have made the gelding more solid.
He, too, will go around with a big weight advantage on the top three in the handicap. Wooden Edge is going for three straight wins in race 5 and while that is difficult to achieve in any grade, with a 3kg apprentice allowance he will get his chance.
Dylan Turner had no complaints about the wintry conditions at Wanganui yesterday.
The Stratford-based jockey hit two notable milestones in the mud and rain when he guided The Fox to victory in the Open Steeplechase.
It was Turner's 100th career success and his first over fences.
James Cummings has trained his first Victorian winner for Godolphin with Esperance successful at Echuca yesterday. Jockey Andrew Mallyon said Esperance's win should be the first of many for Cummings.
• Loves rotorua: Arabian Duke, R1, Rotorua. Two wins and three placings here and placed at both hurdle starts so far. Tough to beat.
• Unbeaten over the hurdles: Coolibah, R2, Rotorua. Back over the jumps and created a big impression in three wins last winter. Don't forget he finished third in a fairly strong flat race at Ruakaka two back.
• Placed beautifully: Wooden Edge, R5 Rotorua. Has impressed in winning his last two and gets in well with a 3kg claimer aboard.
The South Canterbury Racing Club's meeting scheduled for Timaru today has been abandoned due to surface water.
The decision was made yesterday following a course inspection by representatives of the Racing Integrity Unit and the club.
New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing, together with the club, will be looking at race rescheduling opportunities.
- additional reporting NZ Racing Desk, AAP